Optimal planning and operation of irrigation systems under water resource constraints in Oman considering climatic uncertainty |
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Authors: | Niels Schütze Sebastian Kloss Franz Lennartz Ahmed Al Bakri Gerd H Schmitz |
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Institution: | (1) TU Dresden, Institute of Hydrology and Meteorology, Bergstr. 66, 01069 Dresden, Germany;(2) Directorate General of Agriculture & Livestock Research, Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries, Muscat, Sultanate of Oman |
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Abstract: | In this contribution, we introduce a stochastic framework for decision support for optimal planning and operation of water
supply in irrigation. This consists of (1) a weather generator for simulating regional impacts of climate change on the basis
of IPCC scenarios, (2) a tailor-made evolutionary optimization algorithm for optimal irrigation scheduling with limited water
supply, (3) a mechanistic model for simulating water transport and crop growth in a sound manner, and (4) a kernel density
estimator for estimating stochastic productivity, profit, and demand functions by a nonparametric method. As a result of several
simulation/optimization runs within the framework, we present stochastic crop-water production functions (SCWPF) for different
crops which can be used as a basic tool for assessing the impact of climate variability on the risk for the potential yield
for specific crops and specific agricultural areas. A case study for an agricultural area in the Al Batinah region of the
Sultanate of Oman is used to illustrate these methodologies. In addition, microeconomic impacts of climate change and the
vulnerability of the agro-ecological system are discussed. |
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