城市脆弱性研究评述与展望

当前,脆弱性为可持续性科学研究的热点问题,城市脆弱性是努力实现城市可持续发展急需开展的重要研究内容.基于国内外城市脆弱性研究文献资料的回顾,梳理了城市脆弱性概念、研究分类、分析框架、动力机制和评价方法.目前对城市脆弱性尚未形成统一的概念框架,缺乏完善的评价指标体系,对动力机制与调控的研究不足,缺少对城市耦合系统脆弱性的研究.未来,应在现有城市脆弱性研究基础上,建立综合、可行的评价指标体系,构建综合评价模型,并注重典型区域的城市脆弱性评价,为城市可持续发展提供科学依据.

Progress and prospect of urban vulnerability

In the process of rapid urbanization, cities are facing more and more conflicts between the use of natural resources and the protection of ecological environment,which hinder the sustainable urban development. As one of the core issues in sustainability studies, vulnerability research has always been a subject that receives extensive attention. In this paper, we discussed the progress of urban vulnerability research, reviewed the concept, classification, analysis framework, dynamic mechanism and evaluation method in the studies of urban vulnerability. Urban vulnerability research addresses mainly two types of vulnerability: internal vulnerability (urban ecology, economy, society, population) and external vulnerability (global climate change and natural disaster). Urban vulnerability analysis frameworks include risk and disaster framework (RH), pressure release framework (PAR), local disaster vulnerability framework, and vulnerability framework under the background of global change. Urban vulnerability assessment methods mainly include comprehensive index method, functional model, set pair analysis, data envelopment analysis, scenario analysis and layer stacking method. Current studies on urban vulnerability still have the following problems: (1) a unified conceptual framework or a comprehensive evaluation index system have not been yet formed; (2) studies on the mechanism and countermeasures are not sufficient; (3) there are very few studies on vulnerabilities of urban coupling system. In the future, efforts need to be made to establish a unified conceptual framework and a comprehensive evaluation system. After constructing a comprehensive evaluation model, it is necessary to choose particular areas for vulnerability assessment. We hope urban vulnerability research can provide the scientific basis for sustainable economic and social development.