35 a来海南岛耕地变化与人口经济发展间的相关分析

采用1970—2004年的统计资料,用统计方法,研究了近35a来海南岛耕地变化过程与人口增长、经济发展之间动态变化关系,建立了耕地资源减少量与人口总数、固定资产投资总额、人均GDP和城市化水平间的三个曲线相关模型。结果表明:①35a来海南岛耕地资源变化的最主要驱动力是国家政策引导和调控下的人类社会经济活动。②海南岛人口增长、经济发展与耕地面积变化之间存在着比较明显的呈类似库兹涅茨曲线倒“U”型关系,耕地减少量呈现先减小后增大再减小的趋势。③从优化耕地库兹涅茨曲线的角度出发,提出了现阶段协调人口增加、经济发展与耕地保护的政策建议:加快现代土地市场体系建设,提高土地资源市场化配置程度,将土地利用的外部性内部化;进一步明晰产权,改革征地制度,强化耕地管制手段;建立有效的土地利用技术创新机制和技术体系;强化最严格保护耕地的意识。

Correlation Analysis of Cultivated Land Change with Population Increasing and Economic Growth in Hainan Province in Recent 35 Years

Based on the statistical data from 1970 to 2004, and by using statistical analysis methods, we analyzed the dynamic changing relation between the cultivated lands and the growth of population and economic development in Hainan province in recent 35 years. Four correlation models have been formulated: relation between the decrease of cultivated land and population increasing, relation between the decrease of cultivated land and the total investment in fixed assets, relation between the decrease of cultivated land and the {per-capita} GDP, relation between the decrease of cultivated land and the urbanization level.(1) The main driving forces of the changing of cultivated land use were social economic factors under the conduction and control of national policy.(2) The curves described the relation between the cultivated land using and the increasing of population, economic growth are just like the Kuznets Curves: with the increasing of population and the growth of economy, the tendency of the cultivated land decreasing presented a change of firstly decreasing, then increasing, and decreasing again.(3) Based on the optimization of the Kuznets Curves of the cultivated land, the paper gave five kinds of measures to harmonize the contradiction between the increasing of population and the growth of economy and the protection of the cultivated land in the light of economic measures, administration measures, law measures, technical measures and informal measures: to establish the market system of land resources, to enhance the degree of market collocation of land resources and to make the exterior problem of land resource utilization be interior, to control the farmland conversion process way such as to make the property rights more legible, reform the current land requisition system, improve the controlled measure of the cultivated land, and to establish efficient innovation mechanism and system of technology of land resources utilization, to strengthen consciousness of people in cultivated land protection.