温室气体排放评价指标及其定量分析

温室气体排放的科学定量评价是建立国际温室气体减排框架、确定各国合理的减排责任、部署国际减排行动的基础。通过系统阐述目前国际上通行的温室气体排放的主要评价指标（国别排放指标、人均排放指标、GDP排放指标和国际贸易排放指标等）,并通过定量评价剖析这些评价指标的优缺点及其局限性。讨论了发展科学、公平和易于广泛接受的新评价指标的可能性。基于可持续发展的公平性原则,提出了“工业化累积人均排放量”的新指标,以客观定量评价世界各国工业化以来温室气体历史累积排放量的当代人均量。新指标的结果显示,英美等老牌工业化国家的工业化累积人均排放量远高于全球平均水平和发展中国家的水平。还提出并讨论了人均单位GDP排放量、消费排放量、生存排放量等潜在的评价指标。

A Quantitative Comparison and Analytical Study on the Assessment Indicators of Greenhouse Gases Emissions

Currently the main assessment indicators for GHG emissions include national indicator,per capita indicator,per GDP indicator,and international trade indicator. Based on the GHG emission data from World Resource Institute (WRI),US Energy Information Administration (EIA),and Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center(CDIAC),the results of each indictor are calculated for the world and especially for the eight main industrialized countries of US,UK,Canada,Japan,Germany,France,Italy and Russia (G8 Nations),and the five major developing countries of China,Brazil,India,South Africa and Mexico,and their merits and demerits are analyzed. It points out that all these indicators have some limitations. The indicator of Industrialized Accumulative Emission per Capita (IAEC) is identified to evaluate the industrialized historical accumulative emission per capita of every country. IAEC indicator is an equitable indicator for GHG emission assessment,which reflects the economic achievement of GHG emission enjoyed by the current generations in every country and their commitments. The analysis of IAEC indicates that the historical accumulative emissions per capita in industrialized countries such as UK and USA were typically higher than those in the world average level and the developing countries. Emission indicator per capita per unit GDP,consumptive emission indicator and survival emission indicator are also put forward and discussed in the paper.