CMIP5模式对中国地区气温模拟能力评估与预估

利用第五次国际耦合模式比较计划（CMIP5）中29个气候模式的气温模拟结果，评估了各模式对中国地区年平均气温的模拟能力，对未来不同典型浓度路径（RCPs）下中国地区气温的可能变化给出了预估。结果表明：各模式能较好地模拟过去100多年中国地区增温趋势和年平均气温的空间分布，从模式间标准差来看，各模式对中国中部、南部气温模拟具有较高的一致性。利用相对均方根误差分析了各模式的模拟能力，对于多时间尺度（月、年）气温的气候平均态，有7个模式表现良好，高于中等水平，5个模式的模拟能力低于中等水平，模式集合平均值的模拟效果优于大多数单个模式。根据29个模式的评估结果，使用模拟性能相对较好的模式分析了未来不同排放情景下中国地区气温变化，21世纪前期，不同排放情景之间的预估结果差别较小，21世纪中期各情景之间的差别逐渐增大，到21世纪后期，3种排放情景的升温差别明显增大。

Simulations and Projections of the Surface Air Temperature in China by CMIP5 Models

The capabilities of the latest global climate models in simulating surface air temperatures in China have been assessed from the observed dataset and outputs from 29 models that participate in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Inter Comparison Project (CMIP5). Based on the CMIP5 results, the surface air temperature changes in the 21st century are analyzed. The results show that the 29 CMIP5 models well simulated the significant rise trend, temporal evolution and spatial distribution of the annual mean temperature over China. The root mean square errors show that the multi-model ensemble mean shows better performance on various time scales than a single model. The capabilities of the 7 models are comparable to those of the others models have relatively better performances among them. The projection results are consistent between the different emission scenarios and models in the early stage of the 21st century. However the projected temperature becomes more sensitive to the scenarios and models since mid of the 21st century.