| 灰色系统理论在东北地震活跃期预测研究中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 吕政,吴江星.灰色系统理论在东北地震活跃期预测研究中的应用[J].吉林大学学报(地球科学版),1993(2). |
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| 作者姓名： | 吕政 吴江星 |
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| 作者单位： | 吉林省地震局，吉林省地震局 长春 130041，长春 130041 |
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| 摘 要： | 运用灰色系统理论,对东北地区下一个地震活跃期开始时间以及活跃期内可能发生的最大地震的震级进行预测。分别取两个地震活跃期之间的时间间隔和每一活跃期内的最大地震的震级为原始数据列,用五步建模法建立灰色GM(1,1)模型。 用所建模型进行预测,得到东北地区下一个地震活跃期约于1997年开始,活跃期内可能发生的最大地震为7.2级。文中对预测结果的多解性进行了探讨。
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色系统理论 地震活跃期 预测 灰色GM(1 1)模型 |
APPLICATION OF GREY SYSTEM THEORY ON PREDICTION IN EARTHQUAKE ACTIVITY PERIODS OF NORTHEAST CHINA |
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| Lu Zheng Wu Jiangxing.APPLICATION OF GREY SYSTEM THEORY ON PREDICTION IN EARTHQUAKE ACTIVITY PERIODS OF NORTHEAST CHINA[J].Journal of Jilin Unviersity:Earth Science Edition,1993(2). |
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| Authors: | Lu Zheng Wu Jiangxing |
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| Institution: | Seismological Bureau of Jilin Province |
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| Abstract: | In this paper,we attempt to forecast the beginning time and it's largest magnitude of earthquake in following seismic activity period of Northeast China by means of grey system theory. Take account of time interval between two activity periods and the largest earthquake magnitude in each period as origin data set,we constructed two Grey GM(1,1)modcls.The two models predicted that the next earthquake activity period of Northeast China begin at the year of 1997,and a magnitude of 7. 2 may be take place. Finally the uncertainty of forecasting result is also discussed in the paper. |
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| Keywords: | Grey system theory earthquake activity period forcasting Grey GM(1 1)models |
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