南京梅雨特征量统计分析及其对区域性增暖的响应

根据南京整编的1961—2010年梅雨资料,运用Pearson相关法、M-K检验法、Morlet小波分析等方法对南京入梅日、出梅日、梅长、梅雨量和梅雨强度5个梅雨特征量分析其变化特征和其相互关系,以及梅雨特征量对区域性增暖的响应。结果发现:(1)近50 a南京梅雨各特征量年际差异明显,其中仅梅雨量存在显著增加趋势,其余特征量存在年代际差异。(2)近50 a南京梅雨各特征量均没有出现显著突变现象,变化都比较连续。(3)近50 a南京地区梅雨各特征量存在多尺度和局地性特征,并且各特征量的显著周期均包含在2～5 a和6～8 a的短周期内。(4)梅雨各特征量中,梅长与出梅日的关系比其与入梅日的关系更密切,梅雨量与梅长的相关程度大于其与入、出梅的相关程度,而梅雨强度和梅雨量变化接近一致。(5)在南京地区显著增暖的背景下,南京地区入梅日为正响应(正相关),而出梅日、梅长、梅雨量和梅雨强度是负响应(负相关);梅雨各特征量对春季平均气温增暖的响应比其对年平均气温增暖的响应明显。

The statistic analysis of Meiyu's characteristic features and its response to regional warming in Nanjing

Based on Meiyu data in 1961—2010,by using Pearson correlation methods,M-K test,Morlet wave analysis and so on,study was performed of the variation characteristics of Meiyu’s onset date,ending date,duration,total rainfall,intensity and their correlation,added with the response to regional warming.The results show:(1)there were apparent interannual fluctuation of five Meiyu characteristic features,among them only total rainfall had the significant trend,and others were fluctuating during nearly 50 a in Nanjing.(2) In nearly recent 50 a each Meiyu feature had no significant mutations,and their changes were continuous.(3)There have been local and multi-scale characteristics in every Meiyu feature,and every feature’s significant cycles are included in 2-5 a or 6-8 a short cycles.(4)The relationship was closer between the duration and ending date than that between the duration and onset date,and there was closer relationship between rainfall and the duration than that between the onset and ending date of Meiyu,in addition that the intensity had consistent phase with the rainfall.(5) There have been positive response of onset date and negative response of ending date,the duration,the total rainfall and intensity of Meiyu to the significant regional warming in Nanjing,furthermore,the response of Meiyu’s five characteristic features was more obvious to the average temperature of spring than to whole year.