呼伦湖湿地消长对气象水文因子变化的响应

利用1961—2005年呼伦湖湿地的气象及水文资料，基于灰色关联度分析、Mann-Kendall检验及小波分析、回归统计等方法，分析了湿地消长对气象水文因子变化的响应特征。结果表明:年与夏季气候在湿地消长中起主导作用。区域年降水量每增加10 mm，年降水量的直接作用是使湿地水域面积和水位深度分别增加2.6 km2和1.6 cm；年径流量每增加1×108 m3，湿地水域面积和水位深度分别增加4.8 km2和3.0 cm。45年来，湿地消长对影响因子连续变化过程的响应特征具有一致性，特别在20世纪90年代后响应更显著，湿地萎缩加快；气温与降水量变化在湿地水域面积、水位深度消长中的贡献率分别为33.1%与66.9%，22.5%与77.5%，降水量变化起主导作用。湿地消长对影响因子的多时间尺度周期性具有很好的响应。在27年的年代际尺度主周期与11~16年次周期、2~10年年际尺度准周期的叠加作用下，45年来，湿地消长出现了2次减少、1次增加的周期过程，并呈现短周期波动特征。

Response of Rise and Fall in Hulun Lake Wetland to Meteorological and Hydrological Factor Change

With meteorological and hydrological data from 1961 to 2005 in Hulun Lake Wetland,based on gray correlation analysis,Mann-Kendall test,regressive statistics,and wavelet analysis methods,the response models of rise and fall in Hulun Lake Wetland are established by meteorological and hydrological factors. The response characteristics of rise and fall are analyzed under meteorological and hydrological factors change in Hulun Lake Wetland,and references are provided for Hunlun Lake Wetland protecting,resuming and utilizing. Year and summer climate are major roles for the wetland rise and fall,but the water budget of the wetland rise and fall could be reflected completely by year climate.With annual evaporation and runoff fixed,water area and water level depth will respectively increase by 2.6 km2 and 1.6 cm if yearly precipitation increases by 10 mm.Runoff increase of 1×10~8m~3 will lead the water area and water level depth to increase by 4.8 km2 and 3.0 cm respectively,given the evaporation and precipitation unchanged. The coincidence response characteristics are prominent between the wetland rise and fall and the continuous change process of the influential factors from 1961 to 2005.The response is more prominent after the 1990s in particular,when the water resource shortness of the wetland become serious,because the hydrologic environment of the wetland is worsening and the wetland atrophy is faster.The impacting rates of air temperature and precipitation changes on the rise and fall of water area and water level depth are respectively 33.1%and 66.9%,22.5%and 77.5%,and the precipitation change are dominant. The response of multi-time scale periodic characteristics is prominent between the wetland rise and fall and the influential factors.Their chief periods are all 27 years on the inter-decadal timescale.At the same time,the secondary period(11—13 years) on the inter-decadal timescale and the quasi-period(5—10 years) on the inter-annual timescale are the same for annual precipitation and annual runoff,the secondary period(14—16 years) and the quasi-period(2—7 years) are the same too for annual average air temperature and annual evaporation.Under the overlying action with the chief period and the secondary period, the wetland rise and fall is displayed the period processes of twice increasings and once decreasing from 1961 to 2005.The short period response about quasi-period is prominent between the wetland rise and fall and the influential factors,the wetland rise and fall take on the wave characteristics from 1985 to 2000 in Hulun Lake Wetland.