1979—2013年南大洋海冰变化特征及与典型气候变化因子的相关性分析

全球气候变化导致的南大洋海冰变化已引起广泛关注，基于近35年来该区域海冰覆盖范围的时空变化规律，运用Pearson相关和聚类分析等方法，探讨多元厄尔尼诺指数（MEI）、海洋尼诺指数（ONI）以及臭氧空洞面积气候变化因素与海冰覆盖范围的关系。南大洋海冰呈1.1%（±0.6%）小幅度增长，近5年印度洋海域海冰增长最快。1—6月别林斯高晋/阿蒙森海域、6—9月和11月威德尔海域海冰的多年变化趋势均为负增长。在南大洋5大片区中海冰与气候变化因子的关系不同，其中ONI影响别林斯高晋/阿蒙森、威德尔、印度洋、罗斯海海域；MEI主要影响印度洋和罗斯海海域；臭氧空洞主要影响罗斯海和威德尔海域。海冰变化对气候变化的响应存在不同程度的滞后性。

Variation of Sea Ice in the Southern Ocean and Analysis of its Correlation with Typical Climate Change Factors During 1979—2013

Changes in the extent of Southern Ocean sea ice caused by global climate change have caused widespread concern. Based on nearly 35 years’ data of the temporal and spatial variations of sea ice extent, the Pearson correlation and cluster analysis techniques were used to explore its relationship with the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI), Oceanic Nino Index (ONI), and the area of the ozone hole. A small increase 1.1% （± 0.6%) was found in the extent of sea ice in the Southern Ocean, and the sea ice of the Indian Ocean was found to have grown fastest during the past 5 years. The multiyear trend of sea ice in the Bellingshausen/Amundsen seas was found to be negative in January–June, similar to the trend in the Weddell Sea in June–September and in November. Different relationships were found between the extent of sea ice in five sea areas and climate change factors. For example, the ONI mainly influences the Bellingshausen/Amundsen, Weddell, and Ross seas and the Indian Ocean; the MEI influences the Indian Ocean and the Ross Sea, and the ozone hole influences the Ross and Weddell seas. Different degrees of lag were found between sea ice extent and climate change.