1951~2005年中国大陆冬季温度变化过程的区域差异

利用中国大陆160个地面站和寒潮关键区9个站点气象数据,采用聚类分析、相关分析、突变检验方法,分析1951~2005年中国大陆冬季温度变化过程的区域差异。结果表明,中国大陆冬季温度变化可分5个大区,共11个亚区(基本区域单元),各区分界线多与大地貌单元的界线相一致;除川黔桂区外,其余10个亚区均表现出显著升温趋势,升温率0.15~0.54℃/10 a;自北向南,升温速率逐渐减小,开始升温时间推迟。中国大陆冬季温度变化过程的空间差异与各区域受北方冷空气影响程度的不同密切相关,是冬季风环流与大地貌格局共同作用的结果。

Regionalization of Winter Temperature Change over Mainland of China During 1951-2005

Based on the instrumental temperature data from 160 stations in China mainland and 9 stations in the Mongolia Cold Wave (MCW) key area, this papaer analyzed the regionalization of winter temperature change in China mainland during 1951-2005, using the statistical methods including cluster analysis, correlate analysis and Mann-Kendall test. It is found that China mainland could be divided into 5 regions consisting of 11 subregions and the spatial pattern was featured by consisting with spatial pattern of macro landforms over China. And 10 of the 11 subregions, excepting for the Sichuan-Guizhou subregion, had statistically significant warming trend during 1951-2005. From the north to the south, the abrupt warming year started gradually later. The North abruptly warmed since the 1970s, while the middle since the 1980s and the south since the 1990s. Besides, the warming rates were gradually slower from the north to the south with the maximum of 0.53℃/10yr in the north and minimum of 0.15℃/10yr in the south. In addition, 146 of 160 stations in China mainland were significantly positively correlated with the temperature change of the MCW key area. The spatial distribution of the correlation coefficients is consistent with the spatial pattern of regional differences of temperate change. This consistency suggests that regional differences of temperate change are strongly impacted by the spatial heterogeneity of MCW’s effects on regional temperature through the interaction of both the winter monsoon circulation and the macro surface landform. They are dominant factors inducing regional differences of winter temperature change in China mainland.