基于情景模拟的暴雨内涝危险性评价——以黄浦区为例

特殊的地理位置和气候条件使水灾成为上海市的心腹之患。危险性评价是灾害风险评价的第一步。以黄浦区为例,基于情景模拟,借助GIS空间分析方法、构造模型、利用危险性指数对暴雨内涝灾害的主要承灾体道路、旧式房屋进行危险性评价,得到了黄浦区各街道内涝灾害危险性分布图。结果显示:两种情景下,豫园街道的危险性指数都显示最低,20a一遇的情景中,危险性指数高值分布在半淞园路街道和小东门街道。50a一遇的情景中,危险性指数高值集中在老西门街道和小东门街道,其评价结果可为区域综合减灾提供依据。

Hazard Assessment on Rainstorm Waterlogging Disasters in Huangpu District,Shanghai Based on Scenario Simulation

Special geographical and climatic conditions make waterlogging hazards become mortal to Shanghai. The hazard assessment is the basis of risk assessment for natural disasters. In this paper, with the assistance of Geographic Information System (GIS), based on the method of scenario simulation, according to the construction of mathematical models, the waterlogging hazard index was developed to make a systematic comparison of waterlogging hazard among different sub-districts. And then, for each sub-district in Huangpu District, the waterlogging hazard index for roads and old-style residences in two scenarios were obtained respectively. The results show that, in two rainstorm scenarios simulated, the waterlogging hazard in Yuyuan sub-district is at the lowest level. However, in the rainstorm of 20-year return period, the waterlogging hazard in some sub-districts such as Xiaodongmen sub-district and Bansongyuan sub-district is at high hazard level. In the rainstorm of 50-year return period, Xiaodongmen sub-district and Laoximen sub-district are considered to be at high hazard level. In a certain sense, the results can provide the guidance for regional disaster reduction.