历史文献中气候信息的评价

本文对我国史料中所载气候信息进行了评价。结论是:①对于史料所载的某一气候事件,我们将其状态分辨取越细,所获取的信息越少;②在分析过程中,对误差要求低些,所获取的信息反而高些;③就已记录的气候事件而言,官方组织的记载所提供的气候信息最多,私人笔札次之,方志类书最次。

THE EVALUATION ON CLIMATIC INFORMATION IN THE HISTORICAL LITERATURES

This paper documents methods of evaluating the climatic information extracted from Chinese historical literatures. Relevant sources include local gazettes, official histories, memorial to the emperor and personal and private writings. Some indexes has been developed to modify climatic information in three aspects, they are: the time interval between the climatic event occurred and when it was recorded, the distanc between the event and where it was recorded, and the ability in language of the writer's explanation.After some numerical treatments, it shows that:(l) The realiability of climatic information is not only determined by the accuracy of the data, but also by the distribution and resolution of the data. (2) The more grades divided, the more uncertaincy will appears. (3) The larger variance schedulled, the more information would be available.