Study of long-term variations in the Black Sea fields using an interdisciplinary physical and biogeochemical model

Using an interdisciplinary three-dimensional physical and biogeochemical model developed for the Black Sea, the long-term evolution of marine dynamics and ecosystem is investigated. The hydrophysical fields were calculated from a model of Black Sea circulation with assimilation of hydrographic survey and satellite measurement data from 1971 to 2001. The circulation model reproduces well processes of various scales in both space and time (particularly the seasonal course and interannual variability of main hydrophysical fields). The resulting flow fields are then used to calculate the long-term evolution of the components of the lower level of the food chain in the Black Sea ecosystem. The biogeochemical model used in the calculations is based on the nitrogen cycle and includes a parameterization of the main biological and chemical interactions and processes in the upper layer of the Black Sea. The numerical experiments indicated that the biogeochemical component of the model rather successfully reproduces the main features and evolution trends in the Black Sea ecosystem for the period under consideration: the growth in the phytoplankton biomass during eutrophication and changes in seasonal cycles of the main ecosystem components. Also, the hydrophysical processes were shown to be important for a reliable reproduction of long-term changes in the ecosystem.