中国东北地区地表水资源与气候变化关系的研究

利用NCEP/NCAR 1948~2000年共53年的月平均再分析资料,统计分析了东北地区不同区域和季节气温和(或)降水变化对蒸发量、地表径流量以及浅层和深层土壤含水量的影响。结果表明,东北地区地表水资源各分量与气温和降水之间有着较好的相关关系。还建立了气温和(或)降水变化对水资源各分量影响的简单统计评估模型,利用这些模型研究了东北地区地表水资源各分量对气温和(或)降水变化的响应情况,得出东北地区较小的"气候扰动"可能会导致径流量等地表水资源较大的变化和其它一些有意义的结果。

Relationship Between Climate Variation and Surface Water Resources in Northeast China

By using the 53-year NCEP/NCAR reanalysis monthly mean data for the period 1948-2000, the influences of the temperature and/or precipitation on the surface water resources (surface potential evaporation, surface runoff, 0-10cm soil moisture content and 10-200cm soil moisture content) in Northeast China in different seasons have been studied. The simple statistical evaluation models about the influence of the temperature and/or precipitation on the variables of the surface water resources have been also established. Based on these models, the responses of the variables of the surface water resources in Northeast China to the different climate variations have been assessed. The results are summarized as fallows:The temperature variation in Northeast China has some influence on the variables of the surface water resources. When the temperature is higher (or lower) than its normal, the surface potential evaporation tends to increase (or decrease), the surface runoff and the soil moisture content tend to decrease (or increase). Especially the variables of the surface water resources in the west part of Northeast China are the most sensitive to the temperature variation in summer and in autumn. And in the southeast part of Northeast China, the influence of the temperature on the surface water resources is smaller relatively.The variables of the surface water resources in Northeast China have the very closely relations with the precipitation. When the precipitation is more (or less) than its average, the surface potential evaporation tends to decrease (or increase), the surface runoff and the soil moisture content tend to increase (or decrease) greatly. The correlation coefficients can reach 0.70 to 0.98, far exceeding 99.9% significance level. The influence of the precipitation on the surface runoff is the biggest. In summer, when the precipitation increases or decreases 20%, the surface runoff can even increases or decreases 55% to 60% in Northeast China. The statistical evaluation models about the influence of the temperature and the precipitation on the variables of the surface water resources established in this study have the very good capability of prediction and assessment. In summer the variations of the variables of the surface water resources are mainly controlled by the precipitation, but the influence of the temperature on the variables of the surface water resources in spring is also important. The responses of the surface runoff to the simultaneous variation of the precipitation and the temperature are also the most significant. When the precipitation and the temperature increase (or decrease) 10% and 1℃, the surface runoff can increase (or decrease) 25% to 30%, i.e. "the smaller climatic fluctuation" can result in a bigger change in the surface water resources in Northeast China.