用一阶差分法分析甘肃祁连山地区氡短期映震效能

系统分析了甘肃祁连山地区7个氡台点短期异常映震情况。通过对该区数据特点的分析。数据的处理采用了一阶差分法，求出各个台点的月异常频次，如果异常后(包括异常出现的月份)3个月内出现地震，则认为异常与地震对应，否则为虚报。分析发现连城与古浪台对应率比较好，对应率都在50％以上，黄茂，矿物台最差，虚报率接近75％；漏报率都比较低，都在30％以下；异常频次值的大小与地震以及地震的大小并无直接的关系；异常与震中距也无线性关系。

Analysis with the method of first differrence on the earthquake reflecting ability of hydro-radon's short-term anomaly in Qilian mountain in Gansu

The earthquake reflecting ability of seven hydro-radon observation stations in Qilian mountain in Gansu is systematically analyzed in the paper. With the method of first difference, the monthly anomalous frequency of each station was figured out. If an earthquake takes place within three months from an anomaly appearing, we think that the anomaly is from the earthquake. Otherwise, it is not. The analytical result shows that the data from Liangcheng and Gulang stations correspond to earthquake well, both responding ratios being over 50%, but that from Huangmao and Kuangwu stations the worst, and all the non-predicting ratios are lower than 30%, furthermore, there is no direct relationship between the value of the anomalous frequency and the earthquake and its size,and no linear relationship between the anomaly and the epicenter distance.