树轮记录的天山南坡阿克苏河流域2-3月平均气温

利用阿克苏气象站2-3月的平均气温与阿克苏河流域树轮标准化序列,可较好地重建该区域近378年2-3月的平均气温。重建时段具有明显的树木生理学意义,经过多方面验证,重建结果是可信的。对历史时期阿克苏河流域的平均气温进行了分析,发现阿克苏河流域过去378年的2-3月平均气温具有3.6,42和50.4年的准周期变化,平均气温重建序列在1719年和1827年前后发生突变;过去378年的2-3月平均气温大体经历了9低9高的变化阶段,其中1911-1922年是最冷的阶段,比平均值偏低1℃以上,而1640-1651年是最暖的阶段,比平均值偏高1℃以上。20世纪初-10年代中期气温持续下降,1915-1921年间平均气温维持在近百年来最低水平,其中平均最小值出现在1916年。20世纪20年代初-30年代末气温缓慢上升,40年代初—70年代初气温缓慢回落,70年代中后期到现在温度持续上升。

Monthly Mean Temperature from February to March in Aksu River Basin on Southern Slope of Tianshan Mountain Recorded by Tree Ring

The tree ring samples of Schrenk Spruce(Picea Schrenkiana Fisch.et Mey) collected from six sites in Aksu River Basin and standard dendrochronological method on southern slope of Tianshan Mountain in 2005 are used to study six tree ring width chronologies.The mean temperatureseries from February to March in recent 378 years can be reconstructed by using the tree-ring standardized chronologies.The reconstructed period is of obvious tree physiology,and the obtained result is reliable through the verification in many ways. The reconstructed temperature series showed the quasi-periods of 3.6,42 and 50.4 years and theabrupt change in 1719 and 1827.The reconstructed temperature series have nine warm and nine cold stages, the coldest stage is in 1911-1922,which is lower than average 1 ℃ or more,and the warmest stage is in 1640-1651,which is higher than the average 1 ℃.The temperature continuously decrease from the early 20thcentury to 1915,the mean temperaturemaintain at the lowest level in 1915-1921,the temperature value is-3 ℃ in 1916,it is the lowest year over the past 378 years.After 1921 years,the temperature slowly rise until the late 1930s,it drop slowly again from 1940s to 1970s. The mean temperature from February to March rapidly increase in Aksu River Basin,southern slope of Tianshan Mountain from middle-late 1970s to now.