中国近50年气温变化准3年周期的普遍性及气温未来的可能变化趋势

利用全国98个测站的年和冬季气温资料,采用Marr小波分析方法,分析了近50年(1961—2009年)中国8个气候区的年和冬季气温变化,研究了中国气温变化的周期性,并对未来20年(2010—2029年)气温的可能变化趋势进行了预测。结果表明,我国8个气候区气温的年际变化以高频变化为主,普遍存在着准3～4年周期变化,尤其是冬季气温的准3年周期变化显著,而且这种周期变化具有相对的稳定性。而年气温的周期特征存在显著的南北差异。周期叠加外推的结果表明,未来20年,中国将继续保持增暖趋势,北方地区和青藏高原的升温要大于除西南地区外的南方地区。如果按照线性趋势升温,2010-2029年气温上升幅度不会超过1℃。

Universality of Quasi-3-year Period of Temperature in Last 50 Years and Change in Next 20 Years in China

The periodicities of annual and winter temperature changes in 8 climate regions of China are analyzed using the wavele from 1961 to 2009,the prediction of temperature change in next 20 years in period of 2010-2029 also are made.The results show that the main periodic lengths of temperature are in high frequency about 3～4 and 7～12 years in 8 climate regions of China,there is a pervasive 3-year cycle,especially,the 3-year periodic signal is significant in winter of China,which is stable.The periodic character of annual temperature has obvious difference between the southern and northern China.The results of period compound extrapolation show that the temperature in China will continue to keep incremental trend in next 20 years,the temperature,in northern region of China including the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau,will increasing greater than that in southern region except for southwest of China.According to the linear trend,the increasing range of temperature will not exceed 1 ℃.