黄河流域绿色发展效率的时空演变特征与影响因素

基于2005—2017年黄河流域61个地级市数据,构建了黄河流域绿色发展效率投入产出指标体系,并运用多种计量方法研究了黄河流域绿色发展效率时空格局特征与驱动因素。结果如下：① 黄河流域绿色发展效率的区域差距不断扩大,研究期限内绿色发展效率呈现出由“高效率小差距”向“低效率大差距”演进,说明黄河流域绿色发展效率的俱乐部收敛特征不断凸显。② 黄河流域绿色发展效率增长主要来源于规模效率的贡献,科学技术尚未发挥重要驱动作用。③ 研究期限内黄河流域绿色发展效率存在较为明显的空间依存关系,绿色发展效率水平相近的地区空间集聚现象显著。④ 黄河流域绿色发展效率空间分异性显著,高效率地区的东西分布、南北分布的地域差异性突出,集中表现在以城市群为载体呈集群式发展。最后采用Tobit回归模型具体分析了产业结构、经济发展、科学技术、政府调控与市场化水平对于黄河流域及上中下游地区绿色发展效率的作用强度与作用效果。

Spatio-temporal evolution track and influencing factors of green development efficiency in Yellow River Basin

Based on the data of 61 prefecture-level cities in the Yellow River Basin from 2005 to 2017, this paper constructed the input-output index system of green development efficiency, and used various spatial econometric models to examine the spatio-temporal pattern characteristics and influencing factors of green development efficiency in the study area. The following conclusions can be drawn as follows. (1) The regional differences of green development efficiency are gradually widening, evolving from “small differences and high efficiency” to “large differences and low efficiency” totally, which indicates that the club convergence characteristics of green development efficiency are obvious. (2) Scale efficiency makes significant contribution to the growth of green development efficiency, showing that large-scale agglomeration and intensive development are still an important guarantee for the improvement of green development efficiency. However, science and technology have not yet played an important driving role in improving the green development efficiency. In the future, improving the level of science and technology in this basin is the key to optimizing and improving the green development efficiency. (3) There is an obvious spatial reliable correlation of green development efficiency within the study period, and the regional spatial agglomeration featured with similar green development efficiency level is significant. (4) The spatial distributions of green development efficiency are obviously diverse, and the regional differences between the east-west distribution and north-south distribution of high-efficiency areas are prominent, which mainly shows a cluster development stimulated with urban agglomeration. and reflects that the green development efficiency of the study basin has a circular cumulative path dependent effect. The influencing factors of green development efficiency in the Yellow River Basin can be attributed to the adjustment effect of industrial structure, the growth effect of economic development, the demonstration effect and spillover effect of science and technology, the government regulation mechanism and market-oriented mechanism. Finally, Tobit regression model is used to analyze the influencing intensity and direction of industrial structure, economic development, science and technology, government regulation and marketization level on green development efficiency in the Yellow River Basin and its subzones.