气候变化影响下北海公园冰上运动季的特征与情景模拟

北海公园冰上运动是北京传统体育文化遗产的重要组成内容以及冬季休闲旅游的代表性符号,强化其气候变化影响与适应研究,对于应对全球变化的挑战、践行“大力发展冰雪经济”的指示具有重要意义。本文从多源文献中提取分析了其冰场多年启闭日期（间接指示冰层厚15 cm）的变化特征,并结合气温器测数据以及4种气候情景数据（SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5）,利用留一交叉验证法探讨了不同温度指标和拟合方程的预测效果差异,进而对未来冰上运动季的变化、潜在影响与适应对策进行分析。结果表明：① 1989—2018年冰上运动季始日、末日和持续长度的均值分别为1月1日、2月5日和36 d,对应的趋势表现为不显著的推迟（1.00 d/10a）、提前（-0.77 d/10a）和延长（1.11 d/10a）,时序变化可区分为1989—2000年、2001—2013年和2014—2018年3个阶段。② 冰上运动季始、末日分别对其日期前59 d的日最低温和前94 d的日最高温有较好响应,利用这两个指标和玻尔兹曼函数可更好预测冰上运动季变化。③ 2021—2099年冰上运动季始日、末日和持续长度的均值分别较1989—2018年晚1 d、早1 d和缩短2 d,3个指标变幅一致缩小,对应的0.14 d/10a、-0.21 d/10a和-0.34 d/10a的趋势均达到0.01的显著性水平。④ 未来79 a内冬季两大节庆中元旦冰上运动的适宜性要大于春节,其中春节的适宜性在4种气候情景下相差不大,而元旦的适宜性则在4种情景下有一定差别。⑤ 在相关预估结果上,BCC-CSM2-MR、CanESM-5和UKESM这3种区域气候模式并没有太大差异,而热岛效应影响尚待深入研究。⑥ 为了在气候变暖背景下促进体旅融合消费、保障冰上运动产业高质量发展,运营企业应采取强化游客安全保障、扩展旅游产品谱系、购买冰量保险等全方位主动适应措施,研究者应加强研究气候变化影响的复杂性、改进旅游流的预测效果,而管理部门应大力推动产业风险管理报告的编制,充分重视气候变化风险的动态评估。

Characteristics and scenario simulation of the ice-sports season in Beijing Beihai Park under climate change

The ice sports in Beihai Park are one of the main elements of physical culture heritage and the representative leisure symbol during winter in Beijing. Enhancing the research on impacts of global climate change and appropriate adaptation is of great importance to its responses to the challenge of global climate change and practices of vigorously developing ice-snow economy. We extracted and analyzed the opening and closing information of the park rink over the past decades from document archives. Then, on the basis of temperature observational data and four climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) data, we compared the prediction effects of different temperature parameters and fitting equations by using the leave-one-out cross validation, analyzed the projected changes in ice-sports phenology characteristics from 2021 to 2099 and their potential impacts on the tourists, and recommended the following countermeasures for the tourism to deal with climate change risks. The conclusions show that: (1) The beginning date, final date and duration of ice-sports season in the park during the past 30 years, whose mean values were January 1, February 5, and 36 days, respectively, had the corresponding insignificant trends of 1.00 d/10a, -0.77 d/10a, and 1.11 d/10a. The years of variations in ice-sports season can be divided into three periods of 1989-2000, 2001-2013 and 2014-2018. (2) The beginning and final dates of ice-sports season respond sensitively to 59-day daily minimum temperature before the former and 94-day daily maximum temperature before the latter, respectively. Furthermore, the two phenological dates can be predicted well by using Boltzmann function fitting and these two temperature parameters. (3) The estimated average beginning date, final date, and duration of the ice-sports season in 2021-2099 will be one day later, one day earlier, and two days shorter than those in the last 30 years, respectively. The variation amplitudes of these three dates will decrease, while their trends will be significant. (4) In the future 79 years, the climatic suitability for ice sports during the New Year's Day vocation will be better than that in the Spring Festival. Under four climate change scenarios, climatic suitability for ice sports in the Spring Festival will be not different greatly, while the climatic suitability in the other festivals will be much different. (5) Differences of the ice-sports-season predictions on the basis of three regional climate models (BCC-CSM2-MR, CanESM-5, and UKESM) are very limited, while the impact of the heat island effect is unclear. (6) In order to better adapt to tourists' potential changes in destination, travel time, and activity types under global warming, rink operators should strengthen safety management, develop new tourism products, and purchase ice insurance. In addition, researchers should focus more on the complexity of climate change impacts and improve the prediction effect of tourism flows; the departments concerned should vigorously promote the compilation of risk-management reports and pay great attention to the dynamic assessment of climate change risks.