COVID-19期间国家关系交互网络时空分析研究

COVID-19疫情不断蔓延为国际政治、外交关系等带来深刻影响。目前基于复杂网络方法的国际关系研究较少考虑节点的空间属性,难以探索国际关系的动态演化模式及其空间分布特征。该文提出一种结合时间序列聚类与空间统计的国家关系交互网络演化模式探测方法。基于2020年1月-2021年3月的GDELT数据构建国家关系交互网络,基于节点的演化特征,应用K-means聚类算法将节点划分为6种类型,结合局部连接统计方法分析节点演化模式的空间分布特征。研究表明:面对疫情冲击,各国为控制疫情蔓延倾向于参与合作交互事件;国家关系交互网络中的不同时序演化模式总体按照节点的点度中心性强度由高到低分布;疫情防控期间网络中始终处于边缘地位的节点在空间分布上呈现聚集特征,而核心节点空间分布较分散。通过研究网络节点的时序演化模式及空间分布特征可为公共卫生危机事件期间国际关系与地缘政治研究提供新思路,对于危机事件期间制定外交政策与应对策略具有一定参考价值。

Spatiotemporal Analysis of International Relations Network during the COVID-19 Pandemic

The spreading of COVID-19 across the world has a profound impact on international politics and diplomatic relations.The international relations have become intricate and unpredictable during the COVID-19 pandemic.Therefore,spatiotemporal analysis of international relations has important reference value for China′s diplomatic development.In this paper,we propose an evolution pattern detection method for international relations network to study the spatiotemporal evolution pattern of international relations during the COVID-19 pandemic based on time series clustering algorithm and spatial statistics method.Based on the GDELT data from January 2020 to March 2021,the international relations network is constructed.According to the temporal evolution characteristics of nodes in the network,the nodes are divided into six types by using K-means clustering algorithm with dynamic time warping(DTW)distance,and the spatial distribution characteristics of node evolution patterns are analyzed by combining join-counts method.The results show that:1)During the COVID-19 pandemic,most countries prefer cooperating with other countries to curb the spread of the disease.2)The temporal evolution patterns in international relations network during the COVID-19 pandemic are arranged from high to low according to the degree centrality of nodes.3)The peripheral nodes in international relations network are spatially clustered,while the core nodes are dispersed in spatial distribution.The research in this paper provides a new perspective for the international relations and geo-politics research in public health crisis events,and provides a reference for China′s diplomatic development.