Abstract: | From March 2020 to February 2021, this paper examines the precipitation forecasting products of ECMWF and GRAPES, as well as the central grid point product (hereinafter referred to as SCMOC) and the provincial grid point product (hereinafter referred to as SPCC), in Guizhou every 24 hours in the next 5 days. The prediction quality is as follows: (1) ECMWF and SCMOC have the highest correlation coefficient with the actual situation. The variation range of precipitation predicted by SCMOC and SPCC is larger than that of observation, while the variation range of precipitation predicted by GRAPES is obviously smaller than that of observation. (2) SCMOC has the highest accuracy rate of rain or shine. Except that the accuracy rate of forecast aging SPCC at 72 hours is slightly higher than that of SCMOC, the accuracy of other forecast aging SPCCs is lower than that of SCMOC, indicating that the correction ability of SPCC needs to be further improved. (3) At the light rainfall level, the TS scores of the four precipitation forecast products have little difference. The ETS scores of ECMWF and GRAPES are significantly lower than those of SCMOC and SPCC, and the TS scores of GRAPES are higher than those of ECMWF in the five forecast time periods. In the moderate rainfall scale, the TS and ETS scores of ECMWF in the first three forecast periods are higher than those of the other three, and the number of precipitations predicted by ECMWF in the five forecast periods is greater than the actual number of precipitations, but the number of empty reports is not the most. , in the last two forecast time periods, the TS and ETS scores of SCMOC are both the highest, but they are not much different from other homes. At the heavy rainfall level, the TS and ETS scores of the 24h and 96h forecast aging ECMWF were the highest, while the 48h, 72h and 120h forecast aging SCMOC had the highest TS and ETS scores. For heavy rain and above, the TS and ETS scores of SPCC are the highest in the first three time periods, and the spatial distribution of TS scores in 48 hours is also the best, indicating that SPCC is revised for heavy rain and above in the first three forecast time periods. Ability is better. |