ROSE2.0在黔西南4·14强对流天气中的应用分析

受高空槽、切变线、静止锋、弱冷空气、西南急流、地面辐合线影响，2022年4月14日黔西南州出现大范围强对流天气。本文对过程中ROSE2.0进行应用检验分析，结论如下：（1）过程第一阶段对流强度偏弱；第二阶段超级单体或强多单体风暴发展和成熟，对流以大冰雹、8级雷暴大风、40 mm以下短时强降水为主；第三阶段列车效应最明显，风暴移速较快，对流以8～11级雷暴大风、中冰雹、40～60 mm短时强降水为主。（2）ROSE2.0与本地雷达软件相比，大冰雹时CR基本一致，但VIL、HI偏小，ET偏大；ROSE2.0与实际理论值相比，VIL值明显偏低，ET、HI偏大；雷暴大风时低层径向速度ROSE2.0比本地的要小，但中高层偏大；短时强降水时一小时雨强估计ROSE2.0比实际值偏小。

Application Analysis of ROSE 2.0 in the Strong Convective Weather on April 14th in Southwest Guizhou

Affected by the high empty trough, shear line, stationary front, weak cold air, southwest jet, and ground convergence line, a large-scale severe convective weather occurred in Southwest Guizhou on April 14, 2022. The application of ROSE 2.0 in the process is tested and analyzed in this paper. The conclusions are as follows: (1) The convection intensity in the first stage of the process is weak; In the second stage, supercell or strong multicell storms develop and mature, and the convection is dominated by heavy hail, magnitude 8 thunderstorm gales, and short-term heavy rainfall below 40mm; In the third stage, the train effect is the most obvious, the storm moves faster, and the convection is dominated by magnitude 8~11 thunderstorm gales, moderate hail, and 40~60mm short-term heavy rainfall. (2) Compared with the local radar software, ROSE2.0 has basically the same CR during heavy hail, but the VIL and HI are smaller, and ET is larger; Compared with the actual theoretical value, ROSE2.0 has a significantly lower VIL value and a higher ET and HI values; During thunderstorm gales, the radial velocity ROSE 2.0 at the lower level is smaller than that at the local level, but it is larger at the middle and upper levels; The estimated hourly rainfall intensity of the short-term heavy rainfall ROSE 2.0 is smaller than the actual value.