未来黄淮海地区夏玉米光温水资源适宜度及灾害风险演变特征

为探索未来气候变化对黄淮海地区农业气候资源和夏玉米气候适宜度及灾害的影响，以黄淮海地区1981—2021年56个农业气象观测站夏玉米生育期观测资料、84个气象站逐日气象要素观测资料及中尺度区域气候模式（Regional Climate Model Version 3,RegCM3）输出的未来气候情景（Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1B,IPCC SRES A1B）下黄淮海2022—2100年0.25°×0.25°共897个格点逐日气象资料为基础，分析未来黄淮海地区光温水等农业气候资源演变特征，建立黄淮海夏玉米生长发育气候适宜度模型及气候适宜度灾害指数模型，研究未来气候变化对黄淮海夏玉米气候适宜度的影响特征，预估夏玉米农业气象灾害发生风险及特点。结果表明：（1）2022—2100年黄淮海地区夏玉米生长季热量资源呈明显增加趋势，降水资源总体为微弱上升趋势且阶段性变化明显，光照资源变化趋势不明显。（2）2022—2100年夏玉米全生育期气候适宜度呈总体平稳略有下降波动趋势，并具有一定阶段特征和发育期差异。各生育期相比，播种出苗期气候适宜度相对最差，成熟期最好。（3）全生育期温度适宜度总体呈稳定波动下降趋势，说明未来气候明显变暖趋势对夏玉米生长总体不利；水分适宜度和光照适宜度总体稳定、变化趋势不明显，说明未来水分和光照资源对夏玉米的生长基本有利。（4）由各年代来看，2080年代、2090年代温度适宜度最差，2020年代最好；2030年代水分适宜度最差，2080年代最好；2080年代、2090年代光照适宜度明显偏差，2020年代、2030年代明显偏好。综合来看，2061—2100年期间夏玉米气候适宜度总体偏差，2020年代最好。（5）抽雄吐丝期遭受高温热害风险最大，三叶至七叶期发生旱涝风险最大，播种出苗期发生寡照（连阴雨）风险最大，而成熟期发生各种农业气象灾害风险均最小。（6）2080—2098年期间夏玉米拔节期、抽雄吐丝期、灌浆至乳熟期遭受高温热害的风险大；2031—2035年、2046—2056年播种出苗至拔节期发生阶段性严重旱涝灾害风险等级高。2030年代和2040年代及2026年、2080—2093年播种出苗期出现寡照（连阴雨）的风险较大。

Evolution characteristics of future light, temperature, and water suitability and disaster risk for summer maize in Huang-Huai-Hai region

In order to explore the effects of future climate change on agricultural climate resources and climate suitability of summer maize and its disasters in Huang-Huai-Hai region, based on the observation data of growth period of summer maize at 56 agricultural meteorological stations and daily observation data of meteorological elements at 84 meteorological stations in Huang-Huai-Hai region from 1981 to 2021, and daily meteorological data of 897 grid points (0.25°× 0.25°) under the future climate scenario (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1B, IPCC SRES A1B) output by the mesoscale Regional Climate Model Version 3 (RegCM3) in Huang-Huai-Hai region from 2022 to 2100, this paper analyzes the evolution characteristics of future agricultural climate resources such as light, temperature, and water, establishes a climate suitability index model and a disaster risk index model based on climate suitability for the growth and development of summer maize, studies the effects of future climate change on the climate suitability of summer maize, and estimates the risks and characteristics of agrometeorological disaster for summer maize in Huang-Huai-Hai region. The results are as follows. (1) During the whole growth period of summer maize in Huang-Huai-Hai region from 2022 to 2100, the thermal resources show an increasing trend, the precipitation resources show a slightly upward trend with obvious periodic changes, while the solar resources show no obvious changes. (2) From 2022 to 2100, the climate suitability of summer maize in the whole growth period in Huang-Huai-Hai region shows an overall stable trend with slightly downward fluctuation, and there are periodic characteristics and differences at different growth stages. The climate suitability is the worst at sowing and seeding stage and the best at mature stage. (3) The temperature suitability in the whole growth period shows a stably downward trend with fluctuations, indicating that the increase of thermal resources in the future is generally unfavorable to the growth of summer maize. The water suitability and light suitability are generally stable without obvious changes, indicating that the water and light resources are basically favorable to summer maize in the future. (4) The temperature suitability is the worst in the 2080s and the 2090s, and the best in the 2020s; the water suitability is the worst in the 2030s and the best in the 2080s; the light suitability is poor in the 2080s and 2090s and obviously higher in the 2020s and the 2030s. On the whole, the climate suitability of summer maize from 2061 to 2100 is generally poor but the best in the 2020s. (5) The highest disaster risk for summer maize is heat damage from high temperature at tasseling and silking stage, drought and flood at 3-7 leaves stage, and sparse sunlight from continuous rain at sowing and seedling stage, while the risk of agrometeorological disasters at mature stage is the lowest. (6) From 2080 to 2098, there is a high risk of heat damage from high temperature for summer maize at jointing stage, tasseling and silking stage, and filling-milk ripening stage; in the periods of 2031-2035 and 2046-2056, there is a high risk of serious drought and flood from sowing and seeding stage to jointing stage; in the 2030s, the 2040s, 2026, and the period of 2080-2093, there is a high risk of sparse sunlight with continuous rain in the seeding stage.