山东省绿色发展效率时空演化及影响因素分析

运用基于非期望产出的SBM模型,对2007—2017年山东省17地市绿色发展效率进行测度,分析其时空演化特征,进一步构建Tobit模型探究其影响因素。研究表明:2007—2017年山东省各地市间绿色发展效率变化趋势呈现地域差异,东部地区效率提升快于中西部地区,且存在个别地市绿色发展效率下降与个别地市绿色发展效率上升并存的趋势特征。山东省绿色发展效率存在明显的空间分异性,且存在高效率区向东发展,低效率区转向中西部的演化特征。山东省绿色发展效率与经济发展水平之间存在U型曲线关系,且现阶段经济发展水平及城镇化水平对绿色发展具有显著的负向影响,产业结构、对外开放程度及科技创新对绿色发展效率具有显著的正向驱动作用。推动产业结构优化升级,以创新驱动发展,推动更高层次的对外开放是山东省绿色发展提升的重要途径。

Spatialtemporal Evolution and Analysis of Influencing Factors of Green Development Efficiency in Shandong Province

By using the SBM model based on the unexpected output, green development efficiency of 17 cities in Shandong Province from 2007 to 2017 has been measured, its temporal and spatial evolution characteristics have been analyzed, and the Tobit model has been constructed to explore its influencing factors. As showed by the results from 2007 to 2017, the change trend of green development efficiency among different cities in Shandong province shows regional differences. The efficiency of eastern region is faster than that of central and western region, and there is a trend that the green development efficiency of individual cities declines and the green development efficiency of individual cities rises. The green development efficiency of Shandong province has obvious spatial differentiation, and the evolution characteristics of the high-efficiency area to the east and the low-efficiency area to the midwest. There is a U-curve relationship between green development efficiency and economic development level in Shandong province. At present, the level of economic development and urbanization has a significant negative impact on green development. Industrial structure, degree of opening up and technological innovation have a significant positive driving role on green development efficiency. It is an important way to promote the green development to promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure, the development driven by innovation, and the opening up at a higher level in Shandong Province.