1971-2010 年重庆蔬菜气候生产潜力特征分析

利用重庆地区1971-2010年34个地面气象站日值数据集，结合周广胜气候生产潜力模型，采用线性回归、Mann-Kendal突变、经验正交函数（EOF）等方法分析重庆地区蔬菜气候生产潜力。结果表明：重庆地区年平均蔬菜生产力呈下降趋势，并存在明显的突变,主要是由于降水量的减少；全市蔬菜气候生产潜力空间分布呈现渝东南、渝东北偏西地区偏高的特点, 局地差异也比较明显。重庆气候处于暖湿型气候时对蔬菜的生长最为有利。

Characteristics of climatic potential productivity of vegetables from 1971 to 2010 in Chongqing

Based on the daily meteorological data set at 34 ground weather stations from 1971 to 2010 in Chongqing, the climatic potential productivity of vegetables was anlayzed by methods of a Mann-Kendall and an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) combining the climatic potential productivity model developed by Zhou Guangsheng. The results indicate that the mean annual climatic potential productivity of vegetables is in a decreasing trend and has a significant abrupt change because of decreasing precipitation. The climatic potential productivity of vegetables is higher in the southeast and west-northeast of Chongqing. The climatic potential productivity has obvious local differences. The warm and wet climate is favourable to the growth of vegetables in Chongqing.