成都市1980～2010年能见度的变化趋势分析

针对近年来大气能见度严重恶化的问题,利用成都市气象局提供的1980～2010年13个站点的观测资料,分别采用累积百分率法、Ridit分析法和“非常好”能见度出现的频率法对该地区具有代表性的5个县（金堂、大邑、新津、彭州和温江）的能见度的变化趋势进行了详细分析.结果表明,三种研究方法的分析结果较为一致.从年代际对比的角度而言,金堂、大邑、新津20世纪80年代和90年代能见度高,21世纪初能见度低,彭州反之;温江20世纪80年代变化不显著,90年代略高于总体平均能见度,21世纪又降低.从年变化趋势的角度而言,除彭州外,金堂、大邑和新津的能见度均呈下降趋势,且季节差异也在逐渐缩小.从季节变化特征的角度而言,5个站点的能见度均表现出夏季最高,春季和秋季次之,冬季最低.夏季“非常好”能见度出现的频率表明,相比彭州而言,其它4个站点的能见度较差,受污染情况较严重.

Analysis of the Variation Trends of Visibility from 1980 to 2010 in Chengdu

to solve the problem of worsen atmospheric visibility in recent years, with the observation data from 1980 to 2010 from the Meteorological Agency of Chengdu, the change trends of five representative stations＇ visibility in Chengdu （Pengzhou, Jintang, Dayi, Xinjian and Wenjiang） are analyzed using the methods of Cumulative per- centiles, Ridit analysis and Frequency of very good visibility. The research shows that the results of the three meth- ods are consistent. Interannual characters suggest that the visibility of Jintang, Dayi and Xinjin is high in the 1980s and 1990s, but low in the early 21st century, Pengzhou is on the contrary, the change of Wenjiang＇ s visibility in 1980s is not significant, and is a little higher in 1990s than the overall average, but it slows down at the beginning of the 21st century. From the trends of annual variation, the other four stations are declining and the seasonal differ- ences are diminishing except Pengzhou. The seasonal variation of five stations＇ visibility indicates that highest in summer and lowest in winter. Comparing to Pengzhou, the frequency of very good visibility in summer shows that other four stations＇ visibility is poor and pollution is serious.