海城地震预报回顾与思考

四十年前的海城地震预报是一次成功预报大地震的创举,也是辽宁地震工作者为地震科学发展谱写的辉煌篇章。海城地震预报经历了从时间上"长、中、短、临"逐步逼近,地域上由面到块、到点逐步缩小的过程。现阶段地震预报还是经验性的,而海城地震预报中,我们获取的地震孕育信息接近或符合了历史经验模式,"个性"符合了"共性"。所以海城地震"幸运"的预报成功了。

RETROPECTION AND REFLECTION OF HAICHENG EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

As a pioneering undertaking, the successful prediction of Haicheng earthquake 40 years ago in Liaoning Province, has created refulgence for the seismic scientific development. Haicheng earthquake prediction experienced the time course, which developed gradually from long term, medium term, short term to impending term. And it was shrinking from plane to block, from block to point on the territory. The prediction is still experimental at this stage. However, the earthquake-generating data, we have gained from the Haicheng earthquake prediction, is very close to the historical empirical mode. This time the individuality accorded with the universality. Therefore, the Haicheng earthquake was luckily predicted successfully.