青藏高原北部地区地震统计区划分及地震活动特征

地震统计区的划分是研究地震活动性的重要前提和基础,通过对青藏高原北部地区构造地质背景的分析,依据地球物理特征和强震活动特点,讨论和划分该区地震活动统计区,探讨研究区地震活动的复发特点、地震构造特征、潜在地震危险性及强度,分析研究区未来强震发生的强度和可能地点,结果表明,目前青藏高原北部地区处于第8个活跃期,仍存在发生强震的可能,且未来数年存在发生7级以上地震的可能,应密切东昆仑断裂带东段和祁连山中西段地区。

Division of seismic statistical areas and analysis of seismicity trend in the northern part of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

The division of the seismic statistical areas is an important premise and basis for the research of seismicity. Based on the analysis of the tectonic geological background in the northern part of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, according to the characteristics of geophysics and strong earthquake activity, the statistical areas of seismicity are discussed and divided, and the recurrence characteristics, structural characteristics, potential seismic risk, and intensity of seismicity are discussed and researched; at the same time, the intensity and possible location of the strong earthquakes in the future are analyzed in this area. The results show that the seismicity of the northern part of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is in the eighth active period, and there is still the possibility of strong earthquakes occurrence. In the next few years, there is a possibility of earthquakes with M ≥ 7 occurring in the northern part of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The epicenters maybe in the eastern part of the East Kunlun fault zone and the middle western part of the Qilian Mountains.