公元1500—2000年印度尼西亚—菲律宾强火山喷发对中国中东部旱涝格局的影响*

强火山活动是气候变化的重要自然驱动因素,可导致中国降水出现年际或年代际变化,甚至极端的旱涝现象。探究位于中国邻域的印度尼西亚—菲律宾一带的强火山喷发与中国旱涝分布格局的关系,有助于阐释中国旱涝发生的时空规律及机制,为预测未来火山爆发可能导致的降水异常提供借鉴。本文基于1500—2000年期间世界强火山活动和中国旱涝资料,运用时序叠加分析的方法辨识了印度尼西亚—菲律宾一带的强火山喷发后中国旱涝在年际尺度上的时空变化特征,并对1815年Tambora火山喷发进行案例分析。结果表明印度尼西亚—菲律宾一带的强火山喷发对中国的旱涝格局有一定的影响:强火山喷发后第0年至第2年,中国中东部各站点的整体变化为偏涝;在第3年,整体出现了偏旱的转变,且变化幅度相比其他年份较大;就地区而言,喷发后华北、华南地区分别出现了由旱转涝、由涝转旱的变化,并且这些变化大概持续了2~3年,随后2个区域均恢复了喷发前的旱涝趋势;印度尼西亚1815年Tambora火山喷发后0~3年,中国以涝情为主,但发生涝情的区域逐年在发生变化。

Impact of large volcanic eruptions in Indonesia-Philippines on the drought-flood conditions of central and eastern China during AD 1500-2000

Large volcanic eruption is an important driving factor for climate change that can cause variations in rainfall or even extreme drought/flood in China. Because of the short distance,the study on the relationship between large volcanic eruptions in Indonesia-Philippines and China's distribution pattern of drought and flood helps to explain how drought/flood occurs in China,and the conclusions of which can serve as reference for precipitation prediction after volcanic eruption in the future. In this paper,according to the chronology of large volcanic eruptions in the world and drought/flood recorded data in China during AD 1500-2000, the method of Super Epoch Analysis is used to identify the interannualchange of drought/flood after large volcanic eruptions,and the case study of the Tambora Volcanic eruption in 1815 is done. The conclusions show that large volcanic eruptions in Indonesia-Philippines area can affect the distribution pattern of drought/flood in China. In the first two years after the eruptions,most sites in central and eastern China tend to flood. In the 3rd year,there is an overall shift towards drought,and the variation degree is larger than that of other years. In terms of the regions,there is a change from drought to flood in North China after the eruptions,while there is a change from flood to drought in South China. These changes last about 2~3 years,before the two regions resume the pre-eruption drought/flood conditions. In the first three years after the eruption of Tambora in 1815,China was dominated by flood,but the area where floods occurred was changing year by year. In 1815 and 1816,floods mainly occurred in the Yangtze River Basin and its north,while in 1817 floods mainly occurred in the Yangtze River Basin and its south. In 1818,the flooding area was the largest.