“两河”流域的水资源与地缘政治

近年来,国际上和国内相继出现了一个流行的说法:由于中东水资源短缺和人口迅速增长,各国间水资源矛盾日趋尖锐,因而很可能在不久的将来因争夺水资源而爆发战争。该种说法值得商榷。对两河流域和有关各国的水资源现状和近年来该地区地缘政治的一些方面进行了具体分析,指出:有关各国的水资源并不十分短缺,而且存在着节水的巨大潜力；有关各国将会在水资源上继续采取合作和妥协的态度,不会使矛盾激化到为此而发生战争的程度。

THE WATER RESOURCE IN THE EUPHRATES RIVER AND THE TIGRIS RIVER VALLEY AND THE GEOPOLITICS IN THE REGION

In recent years both abroad and at home there appears an idea that owing to scarcity of the water resource and rapid increace of the POpulation in the Middle East and existing of large rivers, such as the Euphrates River and the Tigris River, which are international ones flowing through several countries, the contradictions over the water resource have become more serious among the countries concerned, and a war for water will soon be broken out in the region. In this paper, in which the main rivers of the region, the Euphrates River and the Tigris River, and the countries concerned are considered, a different viewpoint is put forward. First, it is pointed out in the paper that the runoff of the Euphrates River and the Tigris River is relatively rich and the water resources in the countries are not very poor. Then the situation of the water supply in daily life is analysed in the countries of the region, and the result of the analysis shows that no serious problems resulted from the water use of the neighbouring countries exist in daily life water supply in all the three countries Third, the author points out that a POtential for saving water is enormous.In the region water is mainly used to irrigate the crops in the farmland, and basin irrigation is dominant in the agricultural irrigation.Transforming basin irrigation into spray irrigation and drip irrigation will save large quantity of water, though it is very difficult in some countries. Finally, the fact is exPOunded that over last decades cooperation and compromise rather than confrontation have been adopted to solve their contradictions in water resource.Based on the consideration and analysis mentioned above the paper concludes that although peopie can not definitely say that in any situation the war between the countries concerned absolutely cannot be produced by the water resource problems, it seems that no war for controlling the water resource will take place in the region. Now the Middle East is experiencing a peace process, though it is a tortuous one.Under this situation a war for water resource is unimaginable in the region.