EOP预报误差对导航卫星轨道预报的影响分析

导航卫星轨道预报是利用精密定轨结果在惯性系下进行轨道外推，再将外推得到的惯性系轨道转换为地固系轨道，然后生成卫星星历数据。由于坐标系转换时使用的是带有误差的地球定向参数（EOP：Earth Orientation Parameters）预报值，转换结果会产生误差，进而影响轨道预报结果的精度。分析了EOP快速预报产品公报A的预报精度，研究了参数预报误差对轨道预报精度的影响。结果表明，对于利用GPS精密星历外推模拟得到的卫星轨道而言，EOP预报1天引起的轨道预报误差大致分布在0．232±0．183m，参数预报7天引起的轨道预报误差大致分布在0．438±0．356m。

Influence of EOP Prediction Errors on Orbit Prediction of Navigation Satellites

In the process of navigation satellites orbit prediction, satellites orbit in inertial reference frame can be predicted by extrapolating the initialization position generated by precision orbit determination. Then the extrapolated orbit can be converted into satellite ephemeris in earth-fixed frame. Imprecise Earth Orientation Pa- rameters （EOP） used in the reference frame conversion causes errors in orbit prediction. The prediction precision of Bulletin A which is the EOP rapid result and the orbit prediction error caused by EOP prediction error are analyzed in this paper. It is concluded that for satellites orbits extrapolated by using the GPS precise ephemeris, the error caused by EOP prediction approximates 0. 232±0. 183 meters in one day and 0. 438±0. 356 m meters in seven days. Key