多源系统混合前兆场的分离原则、分离方法和强震时间预报讨论

1995年7月12日-1996年2月3日在云南及邻近地区曾发生过3次强震，形成了多次地震在短时间内接踵发生的现象，在这种情况下，各次地震的前兆场之间的相互叠加是不可避免的。用“层次法”对各次地震的前兆场进行了分离，并讨论了分离的原则。结果表明：（1）某些震源不同层次点在时间轴上相遇时，由于叠加作用使异常幅度特别大；（2）某些震源不同层次点时间相近时，形成前兆突跳群；（3）强震前兆和后效前兆明显，表明未来时段内有强震发生；（4）在多源系统发震的晚期阶段，前兆异常明显减弱，这意味着多源系统趋于解体。

A DISCUSSION ON THE PRINCIPLE ANDMETHOD OF SEPARATING MIXTURE PRECURSORS OF MULTIPLE SOURCES AND PREDICTION OF STRONG EARTHQUAKE OCCURRENCE TIME

There were three strong earthquakes to occur from July 12,1995 to February 3,1996 in the Yunnan province and its vicinity.These earthquakes formed a phenomenon of successive occurrence of multiple events.In this case,it is necessary that the precursor fields are formed by every earthquake to superpose mutually.The mixture precursor fields may be separated by the hierarchy method.And principle of separating mixture precursor fields is discussed.The results are following:(1) When precursors of different hierarchy of every earthquake meet each other,its synthetic amplitude becomes very big due to superposition.(2) When the appearing times of precursor of different hierarchy of every earthquake are near,the group of jump like precursor appeared.(3) If an strong earthquake not only has obvious precursor,but also has obvious precursor like after the earthquake,there will be other strong earthquakes to occur in the near future time.(4) If in the later period of the multiple source system,the anomalies much more become weak,it means that procedure of generating earthquake of the multiple source system is going to end.