长江中下游近百年气候冷暖变化对农业生态环境的影响

分别统计分析了上海、合肥、金华、武汉、长沙、南昌、吉安、衡阳等站生长季热量（﹥10 ℃积温及持续日数）和越冬期低温（﹤０℃负积温及极端最低气温）变化特征。运用谱分析方法，提出长江中下游地区气候冷暖变化的周期及长期波动趋势。同时，预测本世纪末，长江中下游地区气候冷暖波动对建立高产、优质、高效的现代农业可能是一种潜在威胁；指出在长江中下游地区农业生产过程中必须重视气候投入，突破传统农业经验，优化农业耕作轮作栽培制度，建设对气候变化具有强的调控功能的新的农业生态系统。

The Effect of Climatic Change of Cold or Warm on Agricultural Environment over the Lower and Middle Reaches of Changjiang River in the Last Century

The variable features of the heat in the growing period (daily mean temperature ＞10℃ accumulated temperature and its durable days) and the low temperature in the overyearing period (daily minimum temperature ＜0℃ negative accumulated temperature and the extreme minimum temperature＝ in Shanghai, Hefei, Jinhua, Wuhan, Changsha, Nanchang, Ji’an and Hengyang stations are analyzed, respectively. Using the spectrum analysis, the climatic cold or warm variable periodicity and the long-range fluctuation tendency are found over the lower and middle reaches of the Changjiang River, Furthermore, in view of the climatic prediction and forecast, it is shown that the anomalous change of the cold or warm may be a potential threat of establishing a modern agriculture system of high yield, excellent quality and high efficiency in the end of this century. So, in order to construct a new agricultural ecological systems with high control power of climatic change, it is necessary for paying attention to “the climatical input”, surmounting the traditional agricultural experience, and improving the crop cultivation and rotation systems.