新疆乌鲁木齐市城市化与土地利用结构的Granger因果关系分析

在城市化与土地利用结构的协调发展成为焦点问题的时代背景下，以新疆乌鲁木齐市为研究区域，采用Johansen协整检验和Granger因果关系分析法，对乌鲁木齐市2000-2015年的城市化水平及5类代表性城市用地结构变化数据进行了处理，并对城市化与用地结构进行了因果关系分析。结果表明：（1）2000-2012年，乌鲁木齐市城市化水平由84.82%降至77.12%，呈下降趋势；2013-2015年由77.73%升至81.62%，呈上升趋势，造成这一现象的主要原因是非农业人口增长速率相对于农业人口增长速率较慢；（2）2000-2015年各类用地所占比例变化情况如下：居住用地比例均在26%以上，明显高于其他用地；工业用地比例较为稳定，均为15%~19%；公共设施用地2014-2015年明显下降，即从平均比例11.46%降至5.03%；城市道路用地比例较稳定，均为5.8%~7.5%；绿地比例呈上升趋势，由20.01%升至30.94%；（3）城市化与居住用地之间的Granger因果关系不明显，工业用地、公共设施用地、城市道路用地是引起城市化的Granger原因，城市化是绿地的Granger原因。对乌鲁木齐市城市化与土地利用结构进行因果关系分析，对城市用地格局的改善、土地利用战略以及有关政策法规的制定具有一定的参考意义。

Granger causality analysis for the relationship between urbanization and land use structure of Urumqi City

At present the harmonious development between urbanization and land use structure has become a focus for a city. In this paper, Urumqi City in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region is taken as a study area to analyze the causal relationship between urbanization and land use structure by using Johansen cointegration test and Granger causality analysis. The urbanization level of the city during 2000-2015 and five types of typical urban land structure change data has been processed. The results showed: (1) From 2000 to 2012, Urumqi City urbanization level had fallen down from 84.82% to 77.12%; from 2013 to 2015, it had increased from 77.73% to 81.62%; the main cause was the non-agricultural population growth rate slower than agricultural population. (2) From 2000 to 2015, proportion of various types of land use had changed as follows: residential land proportion had been more than 26%, higher than others; industrial land ratio had been relatively stable, between 15% to 19%; from 2014 to 2015, the land for public facilities had been declined sharply, from 11.46% to 5.03%; the proportion of land used for urban roads had been stable, in between 5.8%~7.5%; the green space proportion had increased to 30.94% from 20.01%. (3) The Granger causality between urbanization and residential proportion had been not significant change, but industrial proportion, public facilities proportion and road proportion had been the cause of Granger causality of urbanization.