全球海平面变化与中国珊瑚礁

本文以政府间气候变化专业委员会（IPCC）于2001年专门报告中关于21世纪内全球气候变化的温度和海平面变化的预估为前提。简要介绍了中国珊瑚礁的定位、类型和分布，对其进行了成熟度分类，评估了全球海平面变化对中国珊瑚礁的影响。据预测，21世纪我国各海域海平面上升以南海最大，为32 ~ 98cm，其平均上升速率为0.32 ~ 0.98cm/a。从海平面上升速率与珊瑚礁生长速率的理论对比分析，中国珊瑚礁基本上能与前者同步生长，即使海平面以预估高值上升，也不会威胁其生存。从中国珊瑚礁成熟度较高、其生长趋势以侧向生长为主的现实状况出发，未来全球海平面上升能为其创造向上生长的有利条件。从古地理学“将古论今”观点出发，自全新世6000aBP以来曾存在过的高海平面和较高表层海水温度的历史，也可以佐证，21世纪的全球海平面上升不会对中国珊瑚礁的存在和发育造成威胁。现存的珊瑚礁岛应对于全球海平面上升，可以做到“水涨岛高”，它们能够屹立于上升了的未来海平面之上；但对于岛上的人工建筑物则会被浸、被淹，或被淘蚀和破坏，因此必须根据海平面上升的幅度和速率，采取相应的防御措施。

Global sea-level change and coral reefs of China

This paper is proposed here on the presupposition of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios for global climate and sea-level rise of the 21st century，completed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change（IPCC） in 2001. The location，types and distribution of coral reefs in China，and their classification based on the maturity of coral reefs well be introduced in this paper. Also the influence of global sea-level rise on coral reefs of China has been estimated. In the 21st century，within coastal areas of China，the estimated highest sea-level rise will be in the South China Sea，attaining 32 ~ 98cm in their heights and 0.32 ~ 0.98cm/a in their average rate of rise. According to the theoretic comparison of sea-level rising rate with the growth rate of coral reefs，coral reefs of China basically may growth synchronously with the former，even if the sea-level rise with the estimated highest rate， it does not threat the exist of coral reefs. Based on the higher maturity of coral reefs of China and their lateral growth tendency，the future global sea-level rise is making a favorable condition for their growth. Based on the existence of higher sea-level and higher temperature of surface sea water since Holocene from 6000a BP，it is quite evident that the sea-level rise in the 21st century can not threat the existence and development of coral reefs of China. To respond the global sea-level rise extant reef islands of China may reach a balance of the sea-level rise and the rise of islands，and the latter may stand over the future risen sea-level. But the manual buildings on islands well be soak，flooded， and be dredged and destroyed， and it must get some corresponding defensive measures according to the range and rate of the global sea-level rise.