基于Agent和CA的城市土地利用变化研究

分析了元胞自动机在土地利用变化研究的基础上,将Agent引进元胞自动机模型中,在元胞自动机模拟土地利用变化自然性、连续性规律的基础上,将Agent的人为性、不确定性加入到模型模拟中,对CA模型中以随机数体现的不确定性通过Agent给予地理意义的解释,并以城市郊区--樟木头镇为例,对1988-1993年间城市用地变化进行了模拟研究,得到了良好的模拟精度,模拟结果符合土地利用变化的自然性、人文性特征。

Urban Land Use Change Research Based on Agent and Cellular Automata

According to the studies of the use of Cellular Automata in land use, the emergent change of land use could be simulated by CA while the man-caused, uncertainty land use change could be simulated by Agent. This article simulated both of them by Agent and CA with test data in suburb. The result could reflect the effect of CA affected by Agent. The general CA model simulates the uncertainty of urban land change by stochastic model. This kind of stochastic model lack of the definite explanation in geography. In order to explan the stochastic model in geography, Agent was put into the model. In this article, the Agent was the owner of the land user. The subjective factors of the land owner were considered by Agent. United the CA and Agent, the change of urban land use was simulated with the continous changing and the stochastic changing. Finally, a test was made in the rapid development district--Zhangmutou town in Dongguan of China's Guangdong Province.