新时代老龄化与养老资源适配度时空差异及其影响因素分析

运用核密度估计、耦合协调模型、空间杜宾模型等方法对中国老龄化、养老资源配置、养老资源配置与老龄化适配度的演化格局进行了探讨，并揭示空间适配的影响因素，研究发现：① 中国老龄化程度不断上升，且呈现“东高西低”空间特征；② 中国养老资源配置整体水平提高，空间分布上离散程度上升，各省（区、市）之间的绝对差异随着时间的推移呈扩大态势；③ 各省（区、市）养老资源与老龄化的空间适配度明显改善，适配度呈现东部沿海向中西部递减的发展格局，空间集聚程度不断提高；④ 养老投资、政策关注度、养老相关志愿者、老年人抚养比均推动本地养老资源与人口老龄化的空间适配，养老相关志愿者、老年人抚养比还具有明显的正向溢出效应，而老年人协会则抑制周边地区养老资源空间适配。

Spatial and Temporal Differences and Influencing Factors of the Adaptation Degree of Aging and Pension Resources in the New Era

Whether the supply of pension resources matches the degree of aging is related to the allocation efficiency of pension resource and the welfare level of the elderly enjoying the related services equally. In the new era, the elderly in China have undergone profound changes in lifestyle, quality of life and life philosophy. Based on the needs of aging in the new era, rational allocation of old-age resources is of great significance for implementing the national strategy of actively responding to aging and promoting the high-quality development of the cause of aging. Using kernel density estimation, coupled coordination model and spatial Durbin model, this study discusses the evolution pattern of aging, the allocation of pension resources and the adaptation degree between the allocation of pension resources and aging in China. The study also reveals the influencing factors of the spatial adaptation between the allocation of pension resources and China’s aging. The results show that: 1) The degree of aging in China is increasing, and it presents the spatial characteristics of “high in the east and low in the west”. 2) In China, the overall level of pension resources allocation has been improved, and the degree of spatial dispersion has increased. The absolute difference between provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) has expanded with the passage of time. 3) The spatial adaptation between pension resources and aging has improved significantly, but the spatial heterogeneity is prominent, showing a declining development pattern from the eastern coast to the central and western regions as a whole; the agglomeration degree of spatial adaptation changes from strong to weak and then to strong. On the whole, the spatial agglomeration degree is constantly improving, but with the migration of time, it has a polarization trend. 4) The spatial adaptation between pension resources and aging has a significant positive spatial spillover effect. Among the influencing factors, pension investment and policy attention can promote the spatial adaptation of pension resources and population aging in this region; the elderly association reduces the spatial adaptability of the allocation of pension resources in neighboring provinces through spillover effect; the dependency ratio of old-age volunteers and the elderly can not only effectively promote the spatial adaptation of pension resources and aging in this province, but also improve the spatial adaptation of pension resources in neighboring provinces; the role of old-age institutions in spatial adaptation of pension resources is not obvious.