中国旅游城市星级饭店韧性时空分异及影响因素

新冠肺炎疫情重创全球旅游业、饭店业，但不同城市旅游业、饭店业应对和适应扰动的能力不同，即韧性存在差异。以中国41个旅游城市的星级饭店为研究对象，构建基于累积损失的韧性评估模型，运用SARIMA、随机森林等方法，探讨新冠肺炎疫情干扰下2020年旅游城市星级饭店韧性的时空分异特征及影响因素。研究发现：①在中国疫情防控成效逐渐趋好的态势下，中国旅游城市星级饭店韧性不断增强，但韧性演变存在差异。②中国旅游城市星级饭店韧性空间分异明显，存在交通廊道效应和地理邻近效应。③影响旅游城市星级饭店韧性水平的主要因素依次为：客房平均出租率增长率、餐饮与客房收入比、人均公园绿地面积、国内旅游收入增长率、空气质量优良率、城镇居民人均可支配收入等，它们对旅游城市星级饭店韧性水平的影响呈现出非线性的复杂作用。对指导新冠肺炎疫情干扰下旅游城市星级饭店韧性增强具有重要的参考价值。

Spatio-temporal Differentiation and Influencing Factors of Star-rated Hotels’ Resilience of China’s Tourism Cities

COVID-19 has caused heavy losses to the tourism industry and the hotel industry. However, it is different that the ability of tourism cities’ hotels to cope with and adapt to the epidemic, that is, their resilience is different. Taking star-rated hotels of 41 tourism cities in China as an example, this paper constructs a resilience evaluation model based on their cumulative loss. Using SARIMA Model and Random Forest Model, this paper analyzes the spatio-temporal differentiation and factors of star-rated hotels’ resilience of tourism cities in 2020 under the impact of COVID-19. The results show that: 1) With the gradual improvement of the epidemic prevention and control in China, star-rated hotels’ resilience of tourism cities continues to increase, but the evolution of their resilience is different. 2) From a spatial point of view, it is different that star-rated hotels’ resilience of tourism cities. The resilience’s spatial differentiation shows the traffic corridor effect and the geographical proximity effect. 3) There are six important factors affecting star-rated hotels’ resilience of tourism cities, which are the growth rate of average rental rate, the ratio of catering to room income, the urban parks and green spaces per capita, the growth rate of domestic tourism income, the rate of excellent air quality, and the disposable income of urban residents per capita, and which have complex and nonlinear effects on the resilience. This paper is beneficial to star-rated hotels’ resilience of tourism cities under the impact of COVID-19.