东北地区农业现代化发展水平测度与时空演变分析

率先实现农业现代化是全面振兴、全方位振兴东北老工业基地的重大任务。根据中国农业现代化理论内涵和实践要求，从投入、产出、社会发展3个维度构建农业现代化评价指标体系，对2008年、2018年东北地区40个地级行政单元的农业现代化水平进行测度与阶段划分。结果表明：① 从空间格局看，东北地区农业现代化水平呈现出“沿东北-西南轴线地区较高，轴线东西两侧地区较低”的空间格局，三江平原、松嫩平原及环渤海地区为高值集聚区；② 从发展速度看，东北地区各地市农业现代化水平整体有所提高，北部地区发展速度整体大于南部；③ 从所处阶段看，2018年处在农业现代化“初步实现”的地市占比达86%，东北地区农业现代化水平总体处在由“初步实现”向“基本实现”的转变阶段；④ 农业现代化发展水平3个分维度指标在地理空间上也表现出一定的地域分异格局；⑤ 不同地区应针对发展优势及资源禀赋，走符合自身特点的农业现代化路径。

Development Level and Spatio-temporal Evolution of Agricultural Modernization in Northeast China

Taking the lead in modernizing agriculture is a major task for the revitalization of Northeast China, which is of great strategic significance for guaranteeing national food security, protecting black soil resources, and revitalizing the countryside. Northeast China, one of the four major economic sectors, is an important main grain-producing area and commodity grain base in China. The agricultural modernization development level of Northeast China has a direct relation to the national food security and profoundly affects regional economic and social development. According to the theoretical connotation and policy requirements of agricultural modernization in China, the agricultural modernization evaluation index system is constructed from three dimensions of input, output and social development, and the agricultural modernization level of 40 prefecture-level administrative units in Northeast China in 2008 and 2018 is measured. The results show that: 1) From the spatial pattern, the level of agricultural modernization in Northeast China shows a spatial pattern of “higher along the northeast-southwest axis and lower on the east and west sides of the axis”, with the Sanjiang Plain, the Songnen Plain, and the Bohai Sea Rim being the high-value clusters. 2) From the development speed, the level of agricultural modernization in Northeast China as a whole has improved, and the development speed in the northern region has increased. In terms of development speed, the overall level of agricultural modernization in Northeast China has improved, and the overall development speed in the northern region is greater than that in the south. 3) In terms of stage, the percentage of municipalities in the “initial realization” of agricultural modernization in 2018 is 86%, and the level of agricultural modernization in Northeast China is generally in the transition from “initial realization” to “basic realization”. 4) The three sub-dimensional indicators of agricultural modernization development level also show a certain pattern of geographical differentiation in geographic space. 5) Different regions should take the path of agricultural modernization following their characteristics given their development advantages and resource endowments. The research findings have important implications for policymakers formulating agricultural modernization policies following the local conditions of various cities. Firstly, the cities should improve the land scale economy and guide the land proper concentration, as well as improve the large-scale production capacity and management level. Secondly, the cities should make full use of the advantages of the industrial base in the Northeast China, and promote the agricultural mechanization production and the advanced agricultural technologies based in the Northeast China. Thirdly, the cities should speed up the agricultural technological transformation, and cultivate a group of professional farmers.