广东省农村居民生计恢复力测度及影响因素分析

从生计质量、生计促进、生计供给及灾害压力4个维度构建气象灾害影响下农村居民生计恢复力评估模型，运用结构动力学方法测度广东省农村居民生计恢复力水平，并识别生计恢复力的主要影响因素。结果表明：① 广东省农村居民生计恢复力水平呈现周期性变化，与生计质量、生计促进、生计供给之间存在显著正相关，与灾害压力存在较强的负相关，重大气象灾害对农村居民生计恢复力的影响作用仍然较为显著；② 人均地区生产总值、农村人均消费水平、人均教育支出、千人卫生技术人员、节水灌溉面积和水土流失综合治理面积对生计恢复力均具有正向促进作用，其中水土流失综合治理面积和节水灌溉面积影响最为显著；③ 政府宜优先从生计保障、生计促进以及抗灾应对3个维度，优化广东省农村居民生计水平，并且着重提升抗灾应对能力。既要注重临时性救助扶持措施，也要注重农村地区长期实力提升，从整体上提升农村居民应对灾害风险的能力，增强广东省农村居民的生计恢复力。

Measurement and Influencing Factors of Livelihood Resilience of Rural Residents in Guangdong Province

In the context of frequent natural disasters and increasing social public events, the livelihood resilience of rural residents faces many uncertainties. Therefore, using scientific methods to evaluate the livelihood resilience of rural residents and propose livelihood resilience improvement strategies have become important issues to improve the livelihood resilience of rural residents and promote rural development. Considering the impact of meteorological disasters on the livelihood of rural residents, a resilience assessment model was constructed from four dimensions of livelihood quality, livelihood promotion, livelihood provision, and disaster pressure. Then, using structural dynamics method to measure the livelihood resilience index (LR) of rural residents in Guangdong Province. Finally, considering the local economy, education and disaster resistance conditions, the main influencing factors affecting LR were determined. Based on this, the study put forward the strategies to improve the livelihood resilience of rural residents. This study found that: 1) The level of livelihood resilience of rural residents in Guangdong Province changes periodically. It has a significant positive correlation with livelihood quality, livelihood promotion and livelihood provision, while has a strong negative correlation with disaster pressure. Besides, the impact of major natural meteorological disasters is still significant; 2) The results of ridge regression analysis show that per capita GDP (X1), per capita consumption level in rural areas (X2), per capita education expenditure (X3), number of health technicians per thousand population (X4), water-saving irrigation area (X5) and comprehensive control area of soil and water loss (X6) all have positive effects on livelihood resilience, among which water-saving irrigation area (X5) and comprehensive control area of soil and water loss (X6) have the most significant effects; 3) The government should optimize the livelihood level of rural residents in Guangdong Province from 3 aspects of livelihood security, livelihood promotion and disaster response, and focus on improving disaster response capacity. We should not only pay attention to temporary relief and support measures, but also attach importance to long-term strength improvement measures, so as to improve the overall ability to cope with disaster risks and finally enhance the livelihood resilience of rural residents in Guangdong Province.