黄土高原人口变化对县域经济系统脆弱性的影响研究

以黄土高原地区县域为例，利用敏感性?应对能力模型评估了黄土高原地区2000年以来县域经济脆弱性特征及其时空变化，并结合ArcGIS空间技术与灰色关联分析探究人口变化对县域经济脆弱性的影响作用。研究发现：① 2000年黄土高原县域经济脆弱性等级以低和较低脆弱性等级为主导，而2010年低脆弱度区域面积开始出现减少，中、高脆弱度区域面积显著增加，2017年低和较低脆弱性等级的区域占土地面积比例增加，中、高脆弱度区域面积下降。总体来说，2000—2017年黄土高原地区县域经济脆弱性整体呈现出“先升高再降低”的趋势。② 黄土高原县域经济脆弱性整体呈现“南高北低”的空间格局，处于高和较高水平的县区主要集中在甘肃东部部分县域和山西西部县域；中等水平的县区集中分布于甘肃省庆阳、平凉市东部县域、山西省大同、忻州市部分县域以及山西西部部分县域；省会城市所辖县区、地市周边地区的脆弱性水平最低。③ 表征人口变化的人口外流率、性别比和老年人口比重是影响黄土高原县域经济脆弱性关键因素，且不同时期人口变化对经济脆弱性的影响因素存在分异。

Impact of Population Changes on County Economic Vulnerability in the Loess Plateau

Population and economic development is important research contents in the field of sustainable development, and is an important carrier for realizing rural revitalization and regional high-quality development. In order to promote the high-quality development of the Loess Plateau region, it is necessary to have a new understanding and judgment on the relationship between population and economic vulnerability in the region of the Loess Plateau. This paper takes the county of Loess Plateau region as an example, utilizes the sensitivity-resilience model to evaluate the characteristics of economic vulnerability and its temporal and spatial changes in the Loess Plateau since 2000, and explores the effect of population changes on county economic vulnerability by ArcGIS spatial technology and gray correlation analysis. The results are as follows: 1) In 2000, the economic vulnerability grades of counties in the Loess Plateau were dominated by low and lower vulnerability grades, while in 2010, the area of low vulnerability areas decreased, and the areas of medium and high vulnerability increased significantly. In 2017, the area of low and low vulnerability grades increased, and the area of medium and high vulnerability areas decreased. In general, from 2000 to 2017, the overall economic vulnerability of counties in the Loess Plateau showed a significant trend of ‘increase first and then decrease’. 2) The overall economic vulnerability of the county in the Loess Plateau shows the spatial pattern of “high in the south and low in the north”. The counties with high and relatively high levels are mainly concentrated in the area of Liupan Mountains and Luliang Mountains; the middle-level counties are concentrated in the area of Longdong, Taihang Mountains and Luliang Mountains; the vulnerability level of the surrounding areas of counties, districts and prefectures under the jurisdiction of the provincial capital city is the lowest. 3) The population outflow rate, gender ratio, and the proportion of the elderly population, which represent population changes, are the key factors affecting the county economic vulnerability of the Loess Plateau, and the influencing factors of population changes on economic vulnerability in different periods are different.