利用印度洋前期海温进行东亚地区月均降水的数值预报试验

利用中国科学院大气物理研究所的两层全球大气环流模式（GCM）,在加入1999年和2000年1～6月的低纬度中东太平洋及印度洋的实际海温场后,对同年6～8月的全球大气环流及气候变化进行了数值模拟,重点讨论了东亚地区和我国大部分地区的环流及短期气候变化情况,对比分析了模式预报的月平均降水与实际降水的异同,得出了一些有意义的结论,对利用数值模式进行月平均降水的预报做了一些基本工作。

A NUMERICAL PREDICTION TEST OF MONTHLY PRECIPITATION ON EAST-ASIA WITH THE INDIAN OCEAN SST DATA

During the ENSO event period,the Indian Ocean SST will be almost anomalous simultaneously.Some research results indicate that the Indian ocean SSTA would mainly influence the climates of Bengal,Indo-China,Indonesia,India and China.The Indian ocean SSTA is important to Asian climate especially to the anomalous precipitation pattern of China.Based on the IAP-GCM2L model developed in the Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences and the SST data of Indian ocean and median Pacific ocean during January to June,1999 and 2000 in the model, the monthly precipitation prediction of east-Asia region were obtained in this paper. The results indicate that the SSTA of the Indian ocean and the median Pacific ocean would mainly influence the atmospheric circulation and the precipitation of east-Asia region. The monthly precipitation prediction of the numerical simulation is effective in the most regions of east-Asia, especially in southwest China and south China.