黑河中游地区水资源供需状况分析及对策探讨

 在分析黑河中游地区水资源及其开发利用现状基础上,以2002年为现状年,以2006年和2010年为预测年,对本地区未来需水量进行预测和供需平衡分析。结果显示:未来黑河中游地区水资源需求量将呈不断增加趋势,供需矛盾将会越加突出。2006年和2010年,在75％和90％的保证率下,现状水资源工程均无法满足各类用水需求,约有3.38～4.72亿m3和3.93～5.27亿m3的缺口,缺水率将达16.58%～23.16%和18.78%～25.18%。为保证黑河中游地区水资源能够持续开发利用,社会和经济持续稳定发展,从目前来看,主要在农业节水和开发祁连山空中云水资源等方面下功夫,从长远来看,需要加强在流域虚拟水方面的研究。

Analysis on Supply and Demand of Water Resources and Related Countermeasures in the Middle Reaches of Heihe River

This article, choosing 2000 as the basic year, forecast the water demand in year 2006 and 2010 and analyze the balance between water supply and demand in the middle reaches of Heihe River, based on analyzing water resources and its exploitation and utilization status. The results show that contradiction between supply and demand of water resources will come to protrude in the future,which will lead to serious degeneration of eco-environment. Under the guarantee rates of 75 % and 90 % all of the present water resource projects can not meet the various water resources needs in 2006 and 2010. Water shortage will be 3.38×108～4.72×108 m3 and 3.93×108～5.27×108 m3, respectively. correspondingly, the water-lacking rate will be 16.58%～23.16% and 18.78%～25.18%. In order to keep the sustainable development of water resources exploitation and society and economy in the middle reaches of Heihe River, we must take effective measures. At present, we should adjust the structure of primary industry, vigorously developing the water-saving agriculture, enhancing the management for water resources and make use of cloud water resources over the Qilian Mountainous region. In long views, the study on virtual water should be enhanced.