混沌理论在水文领域中的研究现状及展望

本文对混沌理论在水文领域中的应用现状、存在的问题及未来的可能发展方向进行了研究。总结了水文时间序列在混沌识别、混沌预测、相空间参数估计、噪声处理和数据量大小等方面的研究成果和存在的问题，指出未来应该加强混沌与其它理论和方法的比较与结合，并且通过对多变量预测和重构系统动力学模型的深入研究，揭示水文系统混沌演化的基本规律及内在成因机制。

Current Status and Prospect of Chaos Theory Research in Hydrology

The objective of this paper is to present the achievements and important issues in the apphcation of chaos theory in hydrology, and to disseminate the potential for future improvements. This paper reviewed the application of chaotic identification, prediction, parameters for phase space reconstruction, noise processing and data size in hydrology. This paper also pointed out that chaotic approach should be compared and combined with other theories and the research of multivariate prediction and reconstruction of system dynamical equations may reveal the evolution and mechanism of chaotic hydrology.