海冰—海温反馈系统的季节性动力气候模式

本文在全海洋地球的假定下,建立了一个包括太阳辐射、海面温度等季节变化的理想动力气候模式。模拟结果指出:平衡态及其对外参数敏感性的季节变化很大,而且都是夏季比其它季节大得多;四个季节敏感性的平均值也比年平均模式的敏感性大,这可能主要是太阳辐射季节变化引起的。另外,当太阳常数或二氧化碳浓度减小至一定值时,会出现分岔,若继续减小到分岔点以下,则会发生气候灾变—“深冻”。分岔点上外参数的值在夏季要比其它三个季节大得多。以上结果表明物理过程的季节变化在长期气候变化的研究中是不可忽视的。

SEASONAL DYNAMICAL CLIMATE MODEL OF SEA ICE AND OCEAN TEMPERATURE FEEDBACK SYSTEM

An idealized dynamical climate model including seasonal variatons of solar radiation, sea-surface temperature and other climatic elements is designed for an all-ocean planet in this paper.Modeling results indicate: The variations of the equilibria and their sensitivity to changes in external parameters are very large, their values in summer are much larger than those in other seasons. The mean sensitivity of the results for the four seasonal modeling is larger than that of mean annual model, this may be caused by the seasonal variation of solar radiation. In addition, when solar radiation or CO₂ concentration is reduced to a certain value, the bifurcation will present. If it is continuously reduced below this bifurcation point, then catastrophy, "deep freeze", will happen. The values of the external parameters at bifurcation points are much larger in summer than in other seasons. Above results represent that the seasonal variations of physical processes can not be ignored in research of long-term climatic variation.