基于元胞自动机复合模型的土地利用演化模拟——以北京市海淀区为例

为了在土地利用空间格局演化模拟的基础上,为未来城市土地利用规划及管理提供更为科学合理的决策依据,本文以北京市海淀区1996年、2002年及2008年3期土地利用数据为数据源,重点采用元胞自动机复合模型CA-Markov模型与多标准评价方法相结合的手段,构建元胞转移数量规则及空间位置转化规则,并分别构造3种不同大小的元胞邻域集合,进行土地利用格局的模拟及预测。试验中2008年土地利用模拟结果与实际土地利用数据Kappa系数高达0.856 1,表明CA-Markov模型结合多标准评价方法的模拟手段可行性较高,同时元胞邻域空间大小对模拟结果的精度有明显的影响。土地利用结构数据及模拟预测结果表明城市集约化现象明显,建设用地迅速扩张,占用大量耕地、园地用地,因此迫切需要促进城市土地利用的可持续发展。

Simulation of Land Use Change in Haidian District of Beijing City Based on CA Compound Model

In order to provide a more reasonable and scientific accordance for projection and management of urban land utilization in the future based on the land use evolution simulation,CA-Markov integrated model was applied to simulate land use distribution of Haidian district in 2008 based on three periods land use data of 1996,2002 and 2008.In the paper,method of combining CA-Markov model and multi-criteria evaluation was adopted to construct the celluar quantity and spatial location transformation regulations.In addition,some influence factors for land utilization transformation were taken into account,such as natural environment,economical and social development,agricultural production and so on.And three kinds of cellular neighborhood sets of different size were constructed separately in the process of simulation.Based on the result of consistency test,the reseach method used in this paper is proved to be highly feasible and the size of cellular neighbour space has a significant effect on the results accuracy.The land use evolution simulation results show that the city intensive phenomenon wound be severe,and construction lands expand rapidly,which would take up more area of cultivated land and garden plot.Therefore,it is urgent to promote the sustainable development of the urban land utilization.