| 基于对流参数的雷暴预报方法研究 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 刘宸钊,卓伟,裴军林.基于对流参数的雷暴预报方法研究[J].高原山地气象研究,2010,30(2):22-25. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 刘宸钊 卓伟 裴军林 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 西昌卫星发射中心气象室, 西昌 615000 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 通过对2006年6~9月(雨季)大量雷暴对流参数进行计算,选取离西昌发射场最近的单点同化资料。利用相关系数法选取相关性好且稳定的预报因子,进行事件概率回归,得到雷暴预报方程。并对2007年雨季西昌雷暴进行预报,取得了较好的效果。分析表明,基于对流参数的雷暴预报方法对场区雷暴的预报具有明显的效果。
|
| 关 键 词： | 对流参数 概率回归 雷暴预报 |
| 收稿时间： | 2009-12-10 |
Study of Thunderstorm Forecast Method Based on Convection Parameter |
| |
| LIU Chenzhao,ZHUO Wei,Pei Junlin.Study of Thunderstorm Forecast Method Based on Convection Parameter[J].Plateau and Mountain Meteorology Research,2010,30(2):22-25. |
| |
| Authors: | LIU Chenzhao ZHUO Wei Pei Junlin |
| |
| Institution: | Xichang Satellite Launch Center, Xichang Sichuan, 615000 |
| |
| Abstract: | Through the calculation for thunderstorm index from June to September 2006,select the nearest pin-point assimilational data.Select the well correlate and stable predictor in correlation method.Using Regression Estimation of Event Probability to analyze predictor,the thunderstorm prediction equation can be obtained.This method could be well in thunderstorm forecasts of the Xichang launch site in rainy season 2007.The forecast results show that thunderstorm index forecast method have the perfect practical application effect. |
| |
| Keywords: | |
| 本文献已被 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《高原山地气象研究》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《高原山地气象研究》下载免费的PDF全文 |
|
