| 滑坡灾害系统非线性动力学研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 周萃英,晏同珍,汤连生.滑坡灾害系统非线性动力学研究[J].吉林大学学报(地球科学版),1995(3). |
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| 作者姓名： | 周萃英 晏同珍 汤连生 |
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| 作者单位： | 中山大学，中国地质大学 |
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| 摘 要： | 从非线性动力学的观点出发、以滑坡的时间序列数据为基础，研究了滑坡灾害系统的动力学特征：相空间特征及其吸引子。建立了滑坡灾害系统的非线性动力学模型。通过对这一典型滑坡事例－新滩滑坡的预测表明：在一定时间尺度内，其趋势预监测情况吻合良好。最后的Ａ．Ｎ．Ｋｏｌｍｏｇｏｒｏｖ熵分析给出了新滩滑坡确定性预测的时间尺度为１．８年。
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| 关 键 词： | 滑坡灾害系统，非线性动力学模型，预测，时间尺度 |
A RESEARCH ON NON-LINEAR DYNAMIC THEORY OF LANDSLIDE HAZARD SYSTEM |
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| Zhou Cuiying,Yan Tongzhen,Tang Liansheng.A RESEARCH ON NON-LINEAR DYNAMIC THEORY OF LANDSLIDE HAZARD SYSTEM[J].Journal of Jilin Unviersity:Earth Science Edition,1995(3). |
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| Authors: | Zhou Cuiying Yan Tongzhen Tang Liansheng |
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| Institution: | Zhongshan Unitversity. Guangzhou.510275;China University of Geosciences.Wuhan 430074 |
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| Abstract: | On the view point of non-linear dynamic theory,the dynamic features,such as the characteristics of phase space and its attractor of landslide hazard system havebeen researched firstly on the basis of time sequence data of landslide. Furthermore,thenon-linear dynamic model of landslide hazard system has been built.By the analysis of atypical example,the Xintan landslide,the prognostic results indicate that the forecastedresults basically coincide with the monitored results within a certain time scale.At last,the definite prognostic time scale of Xintan landslide is given by the analysis ofkolmogorov entropy.It is 1.8 years. |
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| Keywords: | landslide hazard systam non-linear dynamic model pragnosis timescale |
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