海南岛及邻近地区潜在震源近期强震发生概率的研究

海南岛及其邻近地区属于中国南弱地震区，但它是该地震区内地震活动水平相对较高的东南沿海地震带的一部分，该地区经济发达，人口稠密，１９９４年９月１６日发生台湾海峡７．４级地震，１９９４年１２月３１日和１９９５年１月１０日相断在北部湾发生了６．１级和６．２级地震，如何估计未来本区的地震趋势是一件十分重要和困难的事情。

Studying of the probability of occuring strong earthguakes in Hainan Island and the surrounding area in the near future

Hainan Island and the surrounding is an area where seismicity is weak. However,it is a part of seismic zone in the south-eastern of China.Because of economic develoment and dense population ,it is important and diffecult to evaluate the earthquake tend in the future.The reason is that some earthquakes occured round the area recently (Ms= 7.4,16sept.16,1994 in the Taiwan strait.Ms= 6.1, on Dec.31,1994 and Ms= 6.2,on Jan.10,1995 in Beibu Bay).In the paper, we evaluated theprobility of occuring strong earthquakes (M>6) in Hainan Island and the surrounding area in three years.We use Bayes method to analyse the character of seismo-geology,seismicity and crustal deformation.We suppose that the natural probability of occuring strong earthquakes in the area is steady non-condition probsbility.The result Shows that the probability exceeds 0.5 in 3 potential source areas with No.9,45,55, and others 6 areas have probability with 0.3 0.5.There areas occupy about 16 percent of total and should be pay more attention in the future.