Assessment on agricultural drought risk based on variable fuzzy sets model |
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Authors: | Dan Zhang Guoli Wang Huicheng Zhou |
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Institution: | (1) Macaulay Land Use Research Institute, Craigiebuckler, Aberdeen, AB15 8QH, UK |
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Abstract: | Drought is one of the major natural disasters causing huge agricultural losses annually. Regional agricultural drought risk
assessment has great significance for reducing regional disaster and agricultural drought losses. Based on the fuzzy characteristics
of agricultural drought risk, variable fuzzy sets model was used for comprehensively assessing agricultural drought risk of
Liaoning Province in China. A multi-layers and multi-indices assessment model was established according to variable fuzzy
sets theory, and agricultural drought risk of all 14 prefecture-level cities was respectively estimated in terms of dangerousness,
vulnerability, exposure and drought-resistibility. By calculating the combination weights of four drought risk factors, agricultural
drought risk grade of each city was obtained. Based on the assessment results, the spatial distribution maps of agricultural
drought risk were drawn. The results shows that eastern cities have lower drought dangerousness than western cities in Liaoning
Province totally. Most cities are located in low drought vulnerability region and high drought exposure region. Because of
frequent and severe drought since 2000, most cities are located in lower drought-resistibility region. Comprehensive agricultural
drought risk presents apparent spatial characteristics, escalating from the east to the west. Drought dangerousness is the
most important factor influencing comprehensive agricultural drought risk. Through the spatial distribution maps of drought
risk, decision makers could find out drought situation and make decisions on drought resistance conveniently. |
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